***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 9999.0 1.0 3.5 -4.1 14.7 18.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 2.2 0.8 2.7 -4.5 12.3 16.2 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 3.3 2.3 3.7 -4.1 15.3 19.2 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 -2.8 -3.3 2.3 -3.7 18.8 22.5 -1.0 1.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 4.1 3.5 3.0 -3.5 20.1 23.8 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.9 3.3 1.9 -3.0 23.0 27.3 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 1.8 0.4 2.7 -4.3 12.7 16.8 4.2 6.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -4.0 -4.5 2.3 -3.0 22.5 26.2 -3.1 -1.1 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 4.7 4.0 3.6 -3.4 20.8 24.5 6.1 8.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 5.1 4.6 2.9 -3.1 22.6 26.4 6.2 8.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 4.7 4.1 3.0 -3.4 20.7 24.3 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 4.2 3.6 2.8 -3.4 20.2 23.7 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 4.8 4.0 2.4 -3.4 20.0 23.7 6.1 8.4 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 4.5 4.0 3.7 -3.4 20.7 24.9 6.1 8.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 3.2 2.6 2.2 -3.9 17.7 21.3 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 4.8 4.2 2.6 -3.5 20.2 23.9 6.3 8.7 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 2.3 1.2 2.7 -4.0 14.6 18.9 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 5.0 4.6 2.6 -2.8 24.6 28.7 5.9 8.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 2.1 0.7 3.1 -4.5 12.8 16.6 4.6 7.1 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 1.2 0.8 0.8 -2.3 26.3 30.6 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 4.1 3.5 3.8 -3.7 18.7 22.6 5.9 8.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 2.5 1.4 3.1 -4.0 15.1 19.2 4.7 7.1 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 2.8 1.7 3.6 -4.2 14.8 18.7 5.1 7.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 4.6 4.0 3.6 -3.3 21.0 25.0 6.0 8.3 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 3.2 2.6 2.6 -3.5 18.5 22.6 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 4.4 3.5 2.1 -3.4 18.8 22.2 5.8 8.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 3.1 2.3 2.9 -3.8 16.3 20.5 5.2 7.5 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 3.4 2.8 2.4 -3.8 18.5 22.1 5.4 7.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 1.3 0.9 1.9 -2.5 26.0 30.2 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 2.1 0.7 3.0 -4.5 12.4 16.2 4.5 6.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------