***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 4.3 5.4 -3.7 18.2 24.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 5.2 4.0 4.9 -4.0 16.7 22.6 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 6.2 5.3 5.6 -3.7 18.7 24.4 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 -0.9 -1.8 3.6 -3.8 18.1 22.7 0.9 3.4 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 6.4 5.6 4.2 -3.6 19.6 24.5 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 6.6 5.7 2.9 -3.1 21.6 26.8 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 4.9 3.9 4.9 -3.8 17.4 23.5 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 -2.0 -2.2 3.4 -3.0 21.9 26.5 -1.0 0.7 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 7.0 6.5 5.0 -3.4 21.5 26.6 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 6.8 6.5 4.1 -3.1 22.4 27.2 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 6.8 6.1 4.1 -3.5 19.7 24.4 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 6.5 6.0 4.0 -3.3 20.1 24.8 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 7.3 6.6 3.5 -3.2 20.1 25.0 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 6.7 6.3 5.2 -3.2 22.8 27.9 8.0 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 4.3 3.3 3.6 -3.9 17.5 21.9 6.4 9.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 7.5 6.7 3.7 -3.5 19.2 23.9 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 4.7 4.0 5.0 -3.4 20.1 26.0 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 6.7 6.7 3.9 -2.8 24.6 29.5 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 5.1 3.9 5.1 -4.0 17.0 22.6 6.7 9.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 3.1 3.2 1.9 -2.3 26.1 31.0 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 6.6 6.1 5.5 -3.4 20.8 26.3 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 5.1 4.5 5.3 -3.4 20.5 26.0 6.6 9.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 6.0 5.0 5.4 -3.8 18.5 23.9 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 7.0 6.7 5.1 -3.2 22.5 27.7 8.4 10.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 5.4 4.7 4.2 -3.4 20.0 25.5 6.8 9.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 7.2 6.7 3.6 -3.0 20.9 26.1 8.3 10.3 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 5.8 5.1 4.8 -3.5 19.1 25.0 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 4.7 3.6 3.6 -4.0 17.4 21.8 7.0 9.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 3.1 3.2 3.1 -2.5 25.7 30.6 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 5.2 4.0 5.0 -4.0 16.4 22.3 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------