***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 10.7 12.0 98.3 62.1 53.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.0 11.7 95.7 60.4 50.6 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.1 12.1 99.2 62.4 53.5 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.2 13.3 90.7 59.5 53.0 4.3 7.7 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.3 9.6 13.1 88.1 57.4 51.8 4.7 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.8 6.7 12.9 80.9 52.4 47.3 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.0 11.5 93.4 59.7 50.3 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.4 14.2 91.4 57.9 51.5 7.7 12.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.2 13.0 87.9 57.1 51.2 4.0 6.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.2 14.0 89.4 57.3 51.4 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.8 6.6 12.2 86.6 56.4 50.8 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.5 12.0 88.2 56.8 50.7 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.1 7.5 12.4 83.3 53.2 48.4 4.3 6.9 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.7 14.4 94.0 59.9 51.7 5.7 10.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.2 12.4 93.4 61.4 52.4 3.4 7.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.0 12.1 83.7 54.5 49.4 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.4 11.1 90.7 58.1 48.1 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.3 16.1 93.8 58.9 52.0 4.6 7.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.6 11.9 97.7 61.5 51.4 4.6 7.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.8 20.4 101.1 61.6 52.7 5.3 8.8 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.8 12.2 91.0 59.2 52.2 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 9.6 11.7 90.8 58.6 49.0 4.8 7.7 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.2 12.3 98.0 61.9 52.2 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.3 11.2 14.1 94.9 60.1 52.5 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.9 9.6 13.8 94.5 60.2 53.1 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.5 12.9 87.4 55.5 49.3 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.0 13.2 96.8 61.1 53.1 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.8 12.4 88.1 58.6 51.4 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.9 17.9 97.9 60.5 52.4 7.0 11.4 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.5 11.8 98.1 61.5 51.9 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------