***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 5.2 11.0 113.1 67.2 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.9 6.2 10.9 110.3 66.3 51.5 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.5 9.8 11.1 111.9 66.4 51.4 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 9.3 11.1 107.3 64.1 51.3 2.9 5.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.6 8.2 11.5 105.5 63.1 50.8 2.0 4.8 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.6 11.3 89.9 55.6 45.6 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.6 5.0 10.7 109.5 65.9 50.9 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.7 11.8 11.7 95.4 57.6 48.0 4.6 9.1 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.7 11.8 106.8 63.6 50.9 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.1 12.0 99.9 59.8 48.9 2.0 4.8 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.3 7.4 10.7 100.7 60.6 49.6 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.1 10.4 96.5 58.6 48.6 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.6 11.2 93.7 57.0 47.5 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.9 13.0 104.1 62.8 49.3 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.6 9.6 108.7 65.2 52.0 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.4 10.8 96.8 58.8 48.3 3.1 5.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.5 4.4 10.2 105.6 64.4 50.6 1.4 2.7 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.5 13.4 97.8 58.8 47.5 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.9 11.1 110.0 66.0 51.2 2.2 4.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.7 15.8 95.5 57.5 47.7 2.3 4.5 7.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 7.3 11.4 109.9 65.4 51.9 1.8 4.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.5 4.1 10.5 102.5 63.2 50.5 1.4 2.6 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.4 6.6 11.6 108.8 65.1 50.3 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.5 12.3 102.6 61.7 48.2 2.6 5.9 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.2 7.9 12.5 112.0 66.3 51.7 2.2 4.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.5 11.4 92.1 56.1 47.7 1.7 3.6 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.6 12.0 110.5 66.0 50.7 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.5 10.0 103.5 62.5 50.1 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.7 14.3 96.5 58.3 47.2 3.1 7.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.2 6.7 11.0 113.0 67.3 51.9 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------