***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 37.0 48.3 111.8 65.3 59.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 31.4 34.6 45.7 108.9 63.3 57.4 19.1 27.0 36.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 42.1 50.6 49.4 113.7 66.7 60.5 25.4 36.7 49.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 44.5 50.5 54.3 109.9 64.0 58.4 29.8 40.1 52.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 43.8 49.8 55.7 110.3 64.4 58.6 29.6 39.7 50.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 35.6 36.2 54.0 102.0 57.6 53.1 22.6 31.6 42.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.9 31.4 45.1 107.2 62.1 56.6 17.5 25.0 33.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 67.6 71.4 57.7 105.7 60.8 55.4 52.4 63.7 75.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 36.3 40.0 54.3 107.5 62.3 56.8 23.6 32.4 42.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 44.0 47.1 57.6 106.0 61.0 55.6 30.9 40.3 50.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 36.5 41.0 52.2 107.7 62.4 56.7 23.2 32.7 43.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 40.6 44.1 51.1 106.0 61.0 55.9 26.9 36.6 47.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 43.4 45.6 54.0 105.1 60.2 55.2 30.5 39.5 49.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 54.8 60.0 57.8 108.5 63.2 56.4 35.4 48.2 63.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 37.7 46.0 49.6 110.9 64.6 58.8 19.3 31.7 47.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 37.5 40.1 52.6 106.3 61.3 55.8 26.3 34.3 43.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 29.2 30.2 42.4 103.3 59.4 54.1 18.2 25.6 34.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 41.0 45.6 64.1 107.2 62.2 56.5 26.8 37.0 49.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 34.0 38.2 47.0 110.5 64.5 58.4 22.5 30.3 39.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 44.1 49.3 76.4 107.4 62.2 56.5 27.9 39.5 53.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 38.0 45.0 51.9 111.2 64.9 59.2 22.9 33.4 45.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 30.1 31.3 44.0 102.5 58.7 53.9 19.5 27.0 35.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 31.1 35.6 49.8 111.6 65.3 58.9 20.4 27.8 36.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 47.5 53.2 57.2 109.2 63.6 57.6 31.7 42.7 55.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 38.9 48.6 58.4 115.1 67.7 61.9 23.9 34.6 47.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 36.0 37.3 54.5 103.6 59.0 55.1 26.1 33.2 40.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 33.3 39.4 53.7 111.4 65.1 59.4 19.9 29.2 40.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 38.1 43.4 50.9 108.1 62.7 57.2 21.9 33.0 46.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 66.6 72.2 68.7 106.8 61.8 55.9 45.1 60.2 77.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 34.1 38.6 46.9 111.4 65.0 58.8 21.3 29.6 39.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------