***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.1 65.7 64.7 -1.7 -0.6 0.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 -1.1 -0.2 0.3 1.2 66.7 65.8 -2.6 -1.4 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 2.1 2.2 0.4 1.2 67.2 66.3 -0.3 0.9 2.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 -3.5 -3.4 -1.9 1.4 70.0 68.9 -6.5 -5.1 -3.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 -0.4 -0.2 -1.2 1.6 73.1 71.8 -2.8 -1.7 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 -1.0 -0.7 -3.2 2.0 77.8 76.1 -3.4 -2.4 -1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 -0.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 65.3 64.3 -2.3 -1.1 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 -5.7 -5.4 -2.8 2.2 80.0 78.2 -8.9 -7.7 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 0.6 0.8 -1.0 1.7 73.9 72.5 -1.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 0.7 0.9 -2.3 1.9 77.0 75.4 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 0.4 0.6 -1.8 1.8 75.0 73.7 -2.1 -1.1 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 -0.6 -0.4 -2.2 2.1 78.0 76.6 -3.3 -2.2 -1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 0.1 0.4 -2.4 1.9 77.0 75.3 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 1.1 1.2 -1.0 1.8 75.1 73.7 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 0.4 0.5 -1.0 1.2 67.8 66.7 -1.9 -0.8 0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 0.9 1.1 -2.2 1.8 75.4 74.1 -1.4 -0.5 0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 -0.9 0.2 0.4 1.3 67.7 66.7 -2.4 -1.2 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 -1.4 -0.9 -2.5 2.3 81.6 79.6 -4.0 -3.0 -2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 -0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 67.7 66.7 -2.5 -1.2 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 -3.9 -2.5 -3.6 2.7 87.1 83.9 -7.5 -6.1 -4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 0.2 0.3 -0.1 1.4 70.2 69.0 -2.2 -1.1 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 47 53 100 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 1.3 68.4 67.5 -2.7 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 1.3 69.0 68.0 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 0.3 0.5 -1.1 1.8 75.6 74.3 -2.2 -1.2 -0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 1.5 70.4 69.0 -2.3 -1.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 0.2 0.5 -2.4 2.2 79.9 78.2 -2.3 -1.4 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 0.2 0.2 -0.1 1.3 67.3 66.1 -2.3 -1.0 0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 -1.1 -1.0 -1.7 1.4 69.9 68.8 -3.4 -2.3 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 -2.0 -1.1 -2.9 2.6 85.1 82.8 -5.1 -3.9 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 -0.6 0.3 0.3 1.2 66.1 65.1 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------