***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 11.4 13.0 11.2 3.7 82.5 79.3 5.8 8.1 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 10.5 12.1 11.3 3.9 82.3 79.6 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 11.3 13.1 11.9 3.9 82.8 79.4 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 4.8 6.5 9.0 4.2 84.8 81.0 -1.0 1.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 11.4 13.4 10.2 3.9 83.6 79.6 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 10.3 12.2 8.3 3.4 82.6 77.6 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 10.0 11.4 10.9 3.6 81.2 78.5 4.2 6.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 1.6 3.4 9.1 3.8 84.5 79.8 -3.1 -1.1 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 11.8 13.9 11.2 4.0 84.3 80.2 6.1 8.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 11.7 13.6 10.0 3.9 83.6 79.2 6.2 8.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 11.6 13.6 10.5 3.8 83.2 79.1 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 11.1 13.0 9.7 3.6 83.8 79.4 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 11.4 12.9 9.4 3.2 80.6 76.1 6.1 8.4 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 12.1 14.1 11.5 4.1 83.2 79.3 6.1 8.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 10.8 12.6 10.5 4.3 85.3 81.6 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 11.8 13.6 9.6 3.5 82.0 77.9 6.3 8.7 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 9.8 11.2 10.8 3.7 82.1 79.3 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 11.3 13.3 9.7 3.9 83.6 79.1 5.9 8.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 10.8 12.4 11.6 4.0 82.8 79.9 4.6 7.1 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 7.0 9.1 7.5 3.7 85.2 79.9 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 11.6 13.5 11.7 3.9 83.5 79.6 5.9 8.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 10.7 12.4 11.3 3.9 82.8 79.9 4.7 7.1 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 11.3 13.0 11.9 4.0 83.0 79.9 5.1 7.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 11.6 13.4 11.3 4.0 83.1 79.0 6.0 8.3 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 10.6 12.3 10.1 3.8 83.6 79.7 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 11.1 13.1 8.5 3.4 84.0 79.0 5.8 8.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 10.9 12.4 10.5 3.5 82.0 78.6 5.2 7.5 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 11.6 13.5 9.7 4.2 84.4 80.5 5.4 7.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 7.5 9.4 9.0 3.8 83.8 79.2 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 10.4 11.9 11.3 3.8 82.2 79.4 4.5 6.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------