***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 13.0 14.4 11.8 3.3 79.8 75.7 7.3 9.7 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 11.6 12.8 11.6 3.1 77.7 74.0 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 13.3 14.4 12.3 3.3 78.9 75.0 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 6.8 8.7 9.9 3.8 82.5 77.9 0.9 3.4 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 13.6 15.2 10.8 3.6 81.3 76.9 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 12.7 14.3 9.2 3.6 81.9 77.1 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 11.2 12.5 11.4 3.0 77.7 73.9 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 2.9 4.2 9.8 3.7 82.5 77.6 -1.0 0.7 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 13.7 15.2 11.4 3.6 80.7 76.3 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 13.6 15.3 10.5 3.7 81.6 76.9 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 14.1 15.6 10.7 3.6 81.3 76.9 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 12.8 14.3 10.3 3.5 81.8 77.2 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 13.8 15.2 9.6 3.4 81.2 76.7 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 13.5 15.0 11.5 3.4 78.7 74.7 8.0 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 12.8 14.9 10.5 3.8 82.4 78.0 6.4 9.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 14.4 15.8 10.1 3.5 81.2 76.8 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 10.7 11.8 11.3 2.8 76.7 73.1 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 13.3 14.9 10.4 3.7 81.5 76.8 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 12.0 13.2 11.9 3.1 77.8 74.1 6.7 9.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 8.1 9.6 7.9 3.6 83.1 77.6 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 13.5 14.8 11.9 3.5 80.1 75.9 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 11.6 12.9 11.5 2.9 76.8 73.3 6.6 9.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 12.8 13.9 12.2 3.2 77.9 74.2 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 13.8 15.1 11.5 3.5 79.7 75.5 8.4 10.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 12.5 14.0 10.5 3.6 81.5 76.9 6.8 9.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 13.0 14.5 9.4 3.5 83.3 78.2 8.3 10.3 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 12.6 13.9 11.2 3.3 80.1 75.8 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 13.9 16.1 10.2 3.8 82.0 77.5 7.0 9.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 8.8 10.3 9.6 3.7 82.0 77.1 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 11.8 13.0 11.7 3.2 78.3 74.6 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------