***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.5 10.5 0.8 58.4 55.0 7.0 9.4 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.9 10.3 0.7 57.5 54.4 7.7 9.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.3 10.9 0.7 57.6 54.7 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.1 3.7 8.5 1.1 61.4 57.4 -0.1 2.2 4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.8 9.3 1.0 60.6 56.7 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.4 7.6 1.1 61.2 57.8 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.6 10.3 0.7 57.5 54.4 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.9 1.2 8.0 0.9 60.1 56.8 -2.1 0.0 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.5 9.8 0.9 59.2 55.9 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.6 8.7 0.9 59.6 56.3 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.7 9.2 1.0 60.8 57.0 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.1 8.8 1.0 60.5 57.2 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.9 8.1 1.0 61.1 57.7 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.5 9.6 0.6 55.6 53.6 8.3 10.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.3 9.1 1.1 61.8 58.1 7.2 9.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.2 8.8 1.1 61.4 57.5 8.4 10.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.2 10.1 0.5 55.9 53.4 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.1 8.4 0.8 58.3 55.6 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.8 10.6 0.7 57.5 54.5 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.5 5.9 0.9 59.8 56.5 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.4 10.4 0.8 58.4 55.2 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.4 10.8 10.2 0.5 55.8 53.4 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.4 10.8 0.7 57.0 54.3 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.6 9.7 0.7 56.8 54.5 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.0 9.0 0.9 59.6 55.8 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.7 8.0 1.1 62.6 59.0 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.1 9.8 0.8 58.8 55.2 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.6 8.7 1.1 61.6 57.8 7.3 9.9 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.2 7.5 0.8 58.4 55.7 3.0 5.2 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.8 10.4 0.7 58.0 54.8 7.5 9.8 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------