***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 10.8 11.4 10.2 2.3 79.0 76.5 6.5 8.2 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 10.2 10.9 10.2 2.3 78.4 76.2 5.9 7.7 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 11.0 11.7 10.7 2.3 79.3 76.8 6.7 8.4 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 3.9 4.9 7.9 2.5 80.6 77.6 -0.3 1.4 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 11.3 12.1 9.2 2.5 81.3 78.2 6.8 8.5 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 9.9 11.1 7.6 2.5 83.0 78.8 6.1 7.7 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 9.8 10.4 10.0 2.2 77.7 75.4 5.6 7.4 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 1.1 2.1 8.4 2.8 85.4 81.5 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 11.4 12.4 10.1 2.6 82.4 79.2 7.0 8.8 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 11.4 12.5 9.0 2.7 83.5 79.9 7.1 8.8 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 11.5 12.4 9.4 2.6 82.2 78.9 7.1 8.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 10.6 11.9 9.0 2.7 84.5 80.8 6.7 8.2 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 11.2 12.1 8.5 2.4 82.1 78.4 7.3 8.9 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 11.7 12.7 10.2 2.6 81.9 78.6 7.1 8.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 10.4 11.6 9.1 2.5 80.0 77.0 5.8 7.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 11.7 12.6 8.8 2.5 81.8 78.4 7.6 9.2 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 9.7 10.3 9.9 2.2 78.3 76.0 5.5 7.2 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 11.0 12.4 8.9 2.9 85.5 81.6 6.7 8.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 10.4 11.2 10.5 2.3 79.1 76.7 5.9 7.7 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 6.5 8.2 6.9 3.0 89.0 84.2 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 11.2 12.0 10.5 2.4 80.4 77.5 6.9 8.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 10.5 11.3 10.2 2.3 79.3 76.9 6.0 7.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 10.9 11.8 10.8 2.4 80.0 77.5 6.4 8.2 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 11.3 12.2 10.2 2.6 82.3 79.1 7.1 8.8 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 10.3 11.1 9.0 2.4 80.5 77.6 6.0 7.8 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 10.7 11.8 7.9 2.6 84.6 80.3 7.1 8.5 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 10.5 11.2 9.6 2.2 79.2 76.6 6.4 8.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 11.2 12.3 8.5 2.5 80.1 76.9 6.2 8.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 6.7 8.2 8.3 2.9 86.9 82.7 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 10.1 10.7 10.2 2.3 78.5 76.2 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------