***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 93 7 0 100 1.6 0.6 1.0 9.2 8.9 8.0 3.4 6.4 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.2 13.0 13.9 10.5 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 1.2 0.5 1.0 9.1 9.1 8.1 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 3.5 1.9 1.3 9.4 8.7 8.2 6.5 10.3 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 2.9 1.3 1.4 10.7 8.0 8.0 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 2.1 1.1 1.6 12.5 8.9 8.6 4.3 7.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 0.9 0.5 1.2 13.5 13.6 10.4 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 9.0 6.7 2.1 14.2 10.6 10.2 12.4 16.7 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 2.1 0.8 1.4 11.1 8.9 8.6 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 2.9 1.3 2.0 13.3 9.2 9.3 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 1.9 0.8 1.8 13.0 9.8 9.6 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 2.9 1.7 1.8 14.1 11.8 10.8 5.1 8.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 2.7 1.5 2.0 13.2 9.4 9.3 5.5 9.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 97 3 0 100 2.1 1.0 1.5 10.8 9.2 8.6 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 1.5 0.7 0.8 6.7 10.2 8.3 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 1.6 0.7 1.6 12.0 9.4 9.1 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 0.9 0.8 1.5 17.0 18.3 12.5 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 2.4 1.2 2.2 14.0 9.9 10.0 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 91 9 0 100 1.4 0.8 1.3 12.8 13.6 10.5 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 3.1 1.5 2.3 12.9 9.3 9.3 5.7 9.7 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 1.4 0.5 1.1 8.8 8.0 7.5 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 91 9 0 100 1.5 1.3 1.7 17.4 18.8 12.8 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 1.4 0.7 1.3 12.3 12.0 9.7 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 1.8 0.8 1.5 11.1 9.0 8.7 4.3 8.1 13.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 1.4 0.4 1.2 9.0 8.0 7.6 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 2.1 1.2 1.7 13.3 11.2 10.4 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 94 6 0 100 1.2 0.4 1.1 9.7 8.8 8.0 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 1.2 0.5 1.1 9.0 9.6 8.6 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 5.6 3.1 2.2 13.7 9.7 9.8 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 1.1 0.5 1.0 10.6 11.1 9.1 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------