***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.8 6.4 9.9 81.8 53.4 42.0 3.0 5.7 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.1 5.1 8.6 80.5 53.8 42.5 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.3 7.0 9.2 77.3 50.9 40.6 3.4 6.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.3 4.7 7.6 56.1 38.8 31.6 3.7 6.9 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.6 9.9 73.8 48.5 39.0 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.3 8.8 65.5 44.5 37.2 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.6 8.8 83.5 55.3 43.7 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.7 11.4 10.2 70.1 46.3 39.0 8.0 12.4 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.3 9.9 73.1 48.1 38.2 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.3 7.3 10.9 77.1 50.4 41.0 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.5 5.7 9.7 70.0 46.3 37.8 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.5 6.5 9.0 64.3 42.9 36.5 4.5 8.3 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.6 7.4 10.3 71.9 48.4 40.5 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.0 6.9 11.2 76.6 49.0 40.4 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.7 2.2 5.3 43.2 34.0 27.6 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.6 5.7 9.5 69.8 46.7 38.0 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.3 5.8 8.3 81.1 54.2 42.6 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.0 11.5 77.4 49.8 40.8 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.2 5.1 8.7 79.0 52.4 41.9 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.0 8.2 12.7 72.2 46.4 39.6 5.1 9.2 14.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.0 5.6 9.8 76.5 49.8 39.5 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.8 6.5 9.3 84.8 55.5 43.6 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.4 4.1 9.0 75.1 49.0 40.1 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.9 10.3 74.6 47.6 38.9 4.0 7.5 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.5 11.1 82.6 53.3 43.0 2.7 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.7 5.2 8.7 61.6 41.0 35.4 3.9 6.8 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.6 6.2 10.9 85.4 54.8 43.4 2.8 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.5 3.4 6.7 51.8 37.7 30.5 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.1 10.5 11.9 74.2 47.1 39.4 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.0 5.2 8.7 79.2 52.8 41.8 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------