***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.9 10.1 12.8 110.8 66.6 50.7 3.0 5.8 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.2 11.3 116.1 68.2 51.0 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.8 12.6 113.8 67.5 49.5 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.5 10.8 84.8 57.0 44.1 4.3 7.7 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.6 9.3 10.9 84.7 56.3 44.1 4.7 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.2 10.6 83.3 54.9 43.9 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.1 11.0 112.2 67.1 50.8 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.5 14.6 11.4 84.0 56.0 44.3 7.7 12.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.8 8.2 12.0 87.9 57.2 44.6 4.0 6.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.5 9.2 12.5 88.0 57.2 45.1 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.3 6.5 10.3 83.5 55.7 43.3 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.2 8.3 10.1 83.3 55.7 43.4 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 4.0 7.9 10.9 83.2 55.3 43.9 4.3 6.9 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.8 19.4 16.3 118.1 68.8 51.5 5.7 10.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.7 9.7 9.7 83.7 57.7 42.4 3.4 7.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.3 10.3 83.5 55.8 43.7 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.6 10.0 102.8 63.8 48.7 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.3 9.5 14.0 94.5 59.6 47.4 4.6 7.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.7 13.2 11.9 119.9 69.5 51.2 4.6 7.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.0 9.7 14.7 81.1 53.9 44.0 5.3 8.8 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.1 11.7 94.0 60.1 46.1 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.6 11.4 11.0 108.2 65.6 49.1 4.8 7.7 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.7 13.1 122.5 70.4 51.1 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.5 12.7 14.1 107.4 64.8 49.0 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.0 9.9 12.6 95.7 61.0 47.9 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.8 10.7 85.9 56.8 43.9 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.5 10.0 13.1 106.5 65.0 50.0 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.9 7.6 10.1 85.4 57.6 43.4 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.6 14.0 14.5 91.6 58.2 46.6 7.0 11.4 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.4 13.1 12.1 119.6 69.5 51.3 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------