***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.5 12.6 95.8 60.6 46.8 2.5 4.7 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.9 10.6 91.2 58.8 43.9 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.8 12.3 94.4 60.0 47.1 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.0 14.7 110.5 66.4 52.0 2.9 5.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.5 9.2 15.1 110.8 66.3 52.3 2.0 4.8 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.5 16.3 116.3 67.9 56.7 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.5 4.2 10.7 94.5 60.7 45.5 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.2 16.2 16.3 114.2 67.0 54.5 4.6 9.1 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.4 7.0 15.6 107.9 65.1 51.9 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.5 9.3 17.0 112.3 66.4 53.7 2.0 4.8 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.6 9.3 14.4 112.8 66.8 53.1 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.8 14.2 112.0 66.3 54.2 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.2 11.3 16.4 119.2 69.0 57.0 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.5 11.0 16.5 103.1 62.9 49.3 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.4 7.6 12.7 104.8 65.2 48.9 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.3 9.8 15.1 116.4 68.1 54.8 3.1 5.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.5 4.2 10.9 100.1 63.1 46.7 1.4 2.7 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.5 8.9 18.5 113.9 67.0 53.9 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.5 11.0 91.1 58.6 44.5 2.2 4.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 8.6 22.9 122.3 70.0 56.1 2.3 4.5 7.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.9 14.3 103.7 63.7 50.5 1.8 4.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.5 3.9 11.5 97.2 61.6 46.6 1.4 2.6 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.0 5.3 12.0 92.6 59.1 46.3 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.1 10.3 15.8 105.1 63.8 50.5 2.6 5.9 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.3 7.4 15.3 104.6 64.3 50.4 2.2 4.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.0 16.8 126.6 71.5 58.2 1.7 3.6 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.7 13.9 99.9 62.4 48.4 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.7 13.9 111.6 66.9 52.0 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.7 14.0 20.1 116.9 68.0 54.6 3.1 7.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.9 10.7 89.3 57.9 43.9 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------