***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9.9 13.6 11.5 5.9 94.8 92.5 4.6 6.5 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 9.2 12.0 10.8 5.3 91.5 89.3 3.5 5.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 10.1 13.6 11.6 5.7 93.3 90.8 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 2.9 7.2 9.1 5.8 95.9 93.0 -2.4 -0.5 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 10.0 15.0 10.9 6.5 96.6 94.3 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 8.8 15.4 10.6 7.5 98.8 97.6 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 8.7 11.9 10.8 5.5 92.7 90.6 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 0.5 4.3 9.7 6.1 96.3 94.1 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 10.2 14.8 11.6 6.2 95.7 93.2 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 10.0 14.3 10.5 6.2 95.5 93.0 4.3 6.3 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 10.3 15.6 11.1 6.6 96.8 94.5 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 9.7 14.8 10.5 6.3 96.8 94.9 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 10.2 16.2 11.4 7.1 98.0 96.6 4.4 6.5 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 10.1 12.9 10.3 4.7 89.1 86.0 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 9.1 13.2 10.7 5.7 95.6 93.0 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 10.7 16.9 11.2 7.0 97.9 96.1 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 8.4 10.7 9.9 4.8 90.2 87.9 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 9.4 13.1 9.7 5.7 94.0 91.3 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 9.5 12.4 10.9 5.2 91.1 88.7 3.4 5.6 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.8 9.7 7.8 5.6 95.3 93.3 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 10.0 14.3 11.9 6.1 95.2 92.7 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 9.1 11.4 9.9 4.4 88.7 86.2 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 9.7 12.6 10.9 5.1 90.8 88.1 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 10.1 13.4 10.8 5.4 92.2 89.3 4.3 6.4 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 8.9 13.2 10.6 6.1 96.0 93.8 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 9.6 16.0 10.3 6.8 98.5 97.5 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 9.5 13.9 11.0 6.1 95.5 93.4 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 9.9 14.5 10.2 5.9 95.8 93.1 4.1 6.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 5.9 9.8 8.9 5.6 94.1 91.6 0.0 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 9.0 12.1 11.1 5.6 92.5 90.3 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------