***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 10.9 10.9 9.2 1.7 67.9 64.3 6.2 8.5 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 10.0 9.8 9.2 1.6 66.7 63.8 5.0 7.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 11.0 11.0 9.4 1.7 67.8 64.2 6.1 8.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 4.5 4.7 7.6 2.1 71.4 67.2 -0.4 1.8 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.1 11.3 7.8 1.9 69.6 65.5 6.2 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.8 6.2 1.5 65.7 62.3 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 9.6 9.3 9.0 1.5 66.2 63.5 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 1.1 1.0 6.4 1.5 66.4 62.5 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 11.4 11.6 8.4 1.8 68.3 64.3 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 11.3 11.2 7.3 1.6 66.8 63.0 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 11.4 11.6 7.5 1.8 68.9 64.9 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 10.6 10.7 7.2 1.6 68.1 64.1 6.3 8.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.6 11.1 6.8 1.5 66.8 63.2 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.4 8.4 1.4 64.7 61.4 6.6 9.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 10.6 10.8 7.9 2.3 72.6 68.5 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 11.6 11.8 7.2 1.8 68.4 64.7 7.1 9.4 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 9.3 8.9 8.9 1.4 65.2 62.7 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.5 10.6 6.7 1.4 64.7 61.2 6.5 8.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.0 9.4 1.6 67.0 63.9 5.1 7.5 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.6 4.4 1.0 61.9 58.7 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 11.2 11.4 9.0 1.8 68.7 64.7 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 10.1 9.7 9.1 1.4 65.0 62.6 5.2 7.6 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 10.8 10.6 9.5 1.6 66.7 63.4 5.7 8.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 11.3 11.1 8.3 1.5 65.8 62.2 6.7 9.0 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.3 7.7 1.8 69.1 65.0 5.5 7.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 9.0 10.6 6.5 1.6 68.1 63.9 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 10.4 10.4 8.3 1.6 67.4 63.8 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 11.6 11.7 7.9 2.2 71.5 67.5 5.8 8.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.5 5.8 1.3 63.6 60.2 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 9.8 9.7 9.3 1.6 67.2 64.1 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------