***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 12.5 12.5 10.9 1.8 70.1 65.0 7.1 9.5 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 11.7 11.6 10.8 1.8 68.8 64.7 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.6 11.0 1.8 68.5 64.2 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.2 9.0 2.0 70.6 65.2 0.7 3.1 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.0 9.3 1.8 68.4 63.5 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 12.7 12.3 7.8 1.7 68.3 62.3 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 11.3 11.3 10.7 1.8 69.3 64.9 6.7 8.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.3 2.1 7.8 1.4 64.6 60.4 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 13.1 12.9 9.9 1.7 67.2 62.6 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.5 12.7 8.7 1.6 65.6 61.2 8.2 10.6 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 13.4 13.2 9.0 1.7 67.1 62.4 8.2 10.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.1 8.7 1.5 65.7 61.4 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 13.6 13.1 8.3 1.5 66.6 61.7 8.6 10.9 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.4 12.9 10.1 1.8 66.6 62.7 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 12.5 12.7 9.2 2.1 71.4 66.2 6.7 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 14.0 13.7 8.7 1.7 68.0 62.9 8.8 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 11.0 10.9 10.5 1.7 68.4 64.3 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.2 12.3 8.3 1.5 64.9 60.7 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 12.0 11.8 11.0 1.8 68.5 64.5 6.9 9.2 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.3 5.8 1.1 62.3 58.4 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 12.8 12.8 10.5 1.8 68.3 63.6 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 11.9 11.7 10.7 1.7 68.0 64.3 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.5 11.1 1.8 68.1 64.1 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.5 13.0 9.9 1.7 66.4 62.3 8.3 10.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 12.1 12.3 9.3 2.0 71.2 65.4 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.0 12.6 8.0 1.5 67.1 62.4 8.3 10.5 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 12.4 12.6 10.1 1.9 71.0 65.4 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 13.3 13.4 9.2 2.0 70.3 65.1 7.3 10.0 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.8 7.3 1.4 64.0 60.0 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 11.7 11.7 10.9 1.8 69.1 64.8 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------