***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.4 11.3 1.0 61.1 58.8 7.8 10.0 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 11.1 11.9 11.3 1.1 61.5 59.2 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.0 11.3 0.9 59.7 57.7 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.8 9.3 1.1 60.5 58.5 0.2 2.5 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.8 9.6 0.9 58.9 57.2 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.8 10.1 8.0 0.9 58.9 56.6 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 10.9 11.6 11.2 1.1 62.0 59.4 8.1 10.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.0 1.1 8.1 0.7 57.0 55.3 -1.6 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.7 10.1 0.8 58.2 56.5 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.6 8.9 0.7 57.3 55.7 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.5 9.2 0.8 57.7 56.1 8.3 10.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.9 8.9 0.7 57.1 55.4 7.9 10.0 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.7 8.5 0.8 58.1 56.1 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.1 10.1 0.8 57.9 56.4 8.8 11.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.4 9.5 1.1 61.0 58.9 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.0 9.0 0.8 58.3 56.5 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 10.5 11.4 11.0 1.1 61.8 59.5 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.3 8.4 0.7 57.1 55.5 8.1 10.4 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.8 11.4 1.0 60.9 58.8 8.2 10.4 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.7 6.0 0.7 57.8 55.6 3.9 5.8 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.9 10.8 0.9 59.2 57.3 8.7 10.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 11.2 12.0 11.2 1.0 61.0 59.0 8.4 10.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.2 11.4 1.0 59.9 58.0 8.8 11.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.1 10.0 0.8 57.6 56.1 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.6 9.7 1.1 61.6 59.2 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.4 8.3 0.7 58.3 56.2 8.5 10.5 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.9 10.5 1.1 62.0 59.3 8.4 10.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.5 9.5 1.0 59.9 58.1 7.6 10.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.4 7.4 0.7 57.5 55.7 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.7 11.4 1.1 61.2 58.9 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------