***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 11.3 12.7 10.7 2.6 84.4 80.3 6.9 8.6 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 10.8 11.8 10.5 2.4 81.9 78.6 6.4 8.2 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 11.5 12.6 10.8 2.5 82.7 78.8 7.1 8.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 4.3 5.7 8.7 2.7 83.8 79.5 0.0 1.7 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 11.6 13.1 9.4 2.8 84.7 80.1 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 10.4 12.0 8.1 2.9 87.1 81.6 6.5 8.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 10.4 11.5 10.4 2.5 82.9 79.4 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 1.3 2.1 8.0 2.4 82.8 77.9 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 11.6 12.9 10.0 2.6 83.5 79.1 7.5 9.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 11.6 12.7 8.9 2.5 82.7 78.0 7.5 9.1 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 11.8 13.2 9.2 2.7 84.6 79.9 7.5 9.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 11.0 12.1 8.8 2.5 84.0 79.1 7.1 8.6 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 11.6 13.1 8.8 2.7 86.2 81.1 7.7 9.3 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 11.9 12.6 9.8 2.2 78.3 74.7 7.5 9.4 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 11.0 12.5 9.4 2.8 83.6 79.5 6.2 8.1 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 12.1 13.6 9.0 2.8 86.0 81.0 8.0 9.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 10.2 10.9 10.1 2.2 80.3 77.2 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 11.2 12.1 8.3 2.3 80.8 76.2 7.1 8.8 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 10.9 11.9 10.7 2.4 81.4 78.1 6.4 8.2 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 6.5 7.4 6.0 2.1 80.7 75.6 3.1 4.6 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 11.6 12.9 10.5 2.7 83.8 79.5 7.4 9.1 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 10.9 11.6 10.2 2.1 78.8 76.0 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 11.4 12.3 10.7 2.4 80.6 77.2 7.0 8.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 11.5 12.3 9.8 2.3 80.4 76.3 7.6 9.2 10.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 10.9 12.3 9.3 2.7 85.3 80.8 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 11.0 12.5 8.3 2.7 87.0 81.7 7.5 8.9 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 11.1 12.4 10.0 2.7 85.2 80.9 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 11.7 13.3 9.2 2.8 83.6 79.3 6.6 8.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 6.8 7.7 7.4 2.2 80.6 75.7 3.1 4.6 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 10.7 11.7 10.7 2.5 82.8 79.2 6.3 8.1 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------