***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 12.9 19.8 17.8 199.0 86.9 79.5 3.6 6.4 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 11.2 19.7 19.2 231.5 89.8 84.0 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 13.8 20.2 17.2 182.7 84.2 77.7 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 14.2 16.7 17.1 154.2 78.9 72.4 6.2 9.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 14.7 16.4 15.7 135.9 74.6 67.3 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 7.3 9.5 11.5 112.3 66.6 59.0 3.8 6.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 11.0 19.0 19.2 236.5 90.2 84.9 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 22.5 25.3 17.5 144.8 76.2 68.5 11.6 16.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 11.7 13.2 15.1 132.9 73.5 66.1 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 14.8 17.2 16.9 138.9 75.3 67.7 5.0 8.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.7 12.4 13.5 124.5 70.9 62.8 4.7 7.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 14.1 15.3 13.4 126.3 71.4 64.0 5.6 9.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 13.3 14.5 13.4 126.3 71.5 65.4 5.3 8.6 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 16.2 23.6 22.6 191.5 86.1 78.5 5.1 8.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 13.4 18.9 16.8 176.2 82.4 76.5 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 8.1 11.6 12.9 124.5 70.9 63.2 4.3 6.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 12.0 21.6 19.2 235.1 89.9 83.4 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 17.5 22.8 21.6 166.7 82.5 75.6 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 11.3 18.7 19.2 220.5 88.8 82.3 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 21.6 32.2 31.2 203.0 87.5 80.8 6.4 11.0 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 12.5 15.5 15.7 148.8 77.6 70.9 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 11.8 20.1 20.9 233.2 89.6 83.6 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 10.0 16.0 19.2 202.3 87.2 79.1 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 15.9 21.0 19.6 167.8 82.6 75.4 4.6 8.2 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 13.6 19.0 19.8 174.9 83.8 78.6 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 11.6 12.4 13.0 125.1 71.1 64.9 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 12.4 18.5 19.6 194.0 86.5 80.4 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 13.9 17.4 15.5 154.8 78.3 71.6 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 29.5 39.8 25.5 188.6 86.2 79.3 10.8 16.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 11.9 20.0 18.7 221.8 88.9 83.1 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------