***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.9 10.9 113.8 67.5 53.1 3.0 5.4 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 8.8 11.3 124.2 70.9 55.0 2.6 4.6 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.4 11.6 11.6 118.8 69.2 54.8 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.8 10.5 11.1 103.6 64.0 50.4 3.4 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.8 10.4 12.8 116.5 68.2 54.5 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.4 12.6 13.9 119.1 69.0 55.8 3.9 7.1 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.0 9.1 11.2 127.4 71.9 55.5 2.2 4.5 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 16.7 17.7 15.8 129.1 72.4 59.0 6.3 10.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.7 9.3 13.3 116.3 68.3 54.7 2.5 4.9 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.0 11.5 15.6 125.5 71.2 57.8 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.2 10.4 12.8 123.8 70.7 56.9 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.7 14.2 12.9 127.4 71.8 58.2 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.8 14.7 13.3 128.8 72.3 59.2 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.1 13.8 15.8 125.0 71.1 56.6 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.8 10.3 99.4 63.4 49.9 2.5 6.1 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.9 11.1 12.3 121.7 70.1 56.9 3.1 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.7 11.2 10.9 132.1 73.2 52.6 2.4 4.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 10.8 18.1 127.8 72.0 58.5 2.7 5.2 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.4 9.0 11.6 122.4 70.4 55.0 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 13.4 21.5 128.9 72.3 59.1 3.7 6.8 11.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.4 11.8 114.3 67.5 53.2 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.9 10.1 11.6 126.8 71.7 53.0 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.7 7.9 12.2 121.4 70.0 54.8 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.3 12.2 15.3 124.9 71.0 56.7 3.2 6.2 10.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.7 13.1 115.6 68.0 55.8 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.6 12.8 124.2 70.8 57.8 3.1 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.1 9.5 12.6 116.6 68.3 55.5 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.2 10.6 102.0 63.9 49.9 2.8 5.6 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 19.1 19.8 128.8 72.3 59.1 5.0 9.5 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.6 9.4 11.3 120.5 69.7 55.1 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------