***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.2 10.5 97.5 62.4 50.9 2.8 6.0 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.1 10.2 10.7 102.2 64.1 52.0 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.0 11.0 98.9 63.0 51.9 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.7 12.4 99.6 63.1 52.3 5.4 9.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.5 13.4 12.7 104.5 64.3 53.2 5.3 9.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.5 14.4 107.4 65.6 53.0 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.1 9.3 10.7 104.4 64.5 52.3 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.8 21.5 14.1 109.7 66.1 53.7 8.3 14.0 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.3 10.7 12.7 105.4 64.4 53.4 4.5 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.8 13.1 14.0 109.1 65.5 53.9 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.7 10.2 12.1 105.9 64.8 52.4 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.8 10.5 12.0 107.5 65.7 53.2 4.1 7.0 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.0 9.9 13.0 106.2 65.4 54.3 3.7 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.5 18.8 14.2 102.8 63.8 53.4 6.4 12.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.6 11.3 94.9 62.4 51.0 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.9 9.6 12.1 104.0 64.5 52.7 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.6 10.1 96.4 62.0 50.9 3.4 5.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.2 15.7 113.2 67.0 56.1 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.3 10.9 101.2 64.1 52.0 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.0 14.5 19.2 115.0 68.1 57.2 5.2 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.6 11.5 98.9 62.7 52.2 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.5 10.6 95.6 62.5 52.2 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.3 11.6 101.4 64.2 52.6 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.0 13.6 105.3 64.4 53.7 6.6 11.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.6 12.6 101.3 63.2 53.2 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.2 13.4 110.1 66.7 54.0 2.9 5.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.2 9.3 12.0 101.8 63.5 52.5 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.0 12.0 97.9 63.1 51.5 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.3 19.9 17.2 115.9 68.0 57.0 7.5 12.4 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.2 10.8 103.0 64.3 52.1 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------