***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 3.8 7.2 68.4 46.7 38.2 2.4 4.2 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.9 7.6 76.9 52.4 41.8 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.8 8.2 75.3 50.6 41.3 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.2 7.6 10.1 86.4 56.2 45.4 3.5 6.3 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.2 5.5 10.1 85.8 55.1 45.4 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.8 13.4 106.0 64.6 53.1 2.3 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.5 7.2 74.3 51.7 41.6 1.8 3.3 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.5 12.0 95.5 60.5 51.8 4.9 9.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.8 10.1 82.3 53.0 43.8 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.9 11.5 87.5 56.5 48.1 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.9 9.9 89.8 57.8 47.8 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.2 6.7 10.5 99.3 62.2 52.1 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.9 11.9 104.3 64.2 53.3 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.6 11.5 83.4 53.8 44.9 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.6 7.1 9.9 89.0 59.1 45.4 2.8 5.3 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.1 10.8 98.3 61.7 50.3 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.7 7.1 77.4 53.3 42.2 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.8 13.2 89.7 57.7 49.5 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.9 7.9 77.0 52.2 41.7 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.2 16.3 99.5 62.5 53.7 2.4 4.3 6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.4 4.7 8.6 75.9 49.9 40.6 2.2 4.7 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.5 3.1 7.8 78.6 53.7 42.8 1.3 2.7 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.2 8.6 76.9 51.9 41.6 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.0 11.1 83.2 54.4 45.9 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.5 9.0 74.7 49.2 40.7 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.7 6.2 11.9 110.1 66.5 55.2 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.8 8.2 70.4 47.8 39.7 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.6 7.1 10.6 92.1 60.0 47.5 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.8 14.3 92.9 59.4 51.1 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.0 3.9 7.7 75.7 51.5 41.4 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------