***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 32.0 40.3 46.4 116.6 68.2 62.5 19.4 28.2 38.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 38.2 42.2 48.9 129.3 74.9 69.7 18.7 26.5 35.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 41.2 51.6 48.1 116.6 68.1 62.8 25.3 36.4 49.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 43.8 49.0 50.7 110.3 64.3 58.0 29.0 39.1 50.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 42.0 46.9 51.4 110.4 64.4 57.8 27.5 37.1 48.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 35.7 40.0 53.1 110.9 64.8 57.5 21.2 30.3 40.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 35.3 39.9 48.2 131.2 75.8 70.2 17.2 24.5 32.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 75.7 77.0 59.4 119.2 70.2 63.0 51.7 62.4 73.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 36.4 40.1 51.2 108.7 63.1 56.8 22.9 31.8 41.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 43.6 50.5 58.0 114.6 67.4 60.7 30.6 39.6 49.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 38.1 43.0 48.3 110.7 64.5 57.4 22.2 32.3 44.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 40.2 47.1 48.8 114.9 67.3 59.9 25.5 35.1 45.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 50.2 49.3 51.7 115.7 68.0 60.5 29.4 38.1 47.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 65.7 69.7 64.2 123.2 72.9 67.1 36.3 48.5 62.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 38.4 47.5 48.3 112.6 65.6 59.4 19.5 31.9 48.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 37.3 41.6 48.2 111.6 65.2 57.7 24.8 32.9 42.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 36.9 40.9 47.4 131.1 75.9 70.2 18.0 25.3 33.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 50.9 54.5 68.5 123.1 73.2 66.5 26.6 36.5 48.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 40.3 43.4 49.6 126.5 73.4 68.5 22.1 29.8 38.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 56.8 65.7 88.2 135.3 79.3 72.3 27.7 38.7 50.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 38.2 42.8 47.5 108.7 63.1 57.3 22.7 33.0 45.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 38.3 41.3 50.9 130.2 75.5 70.7 19.1 26.5 34.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 46 54 100 36.7 39.5 51.6 122.4 71.5 66.3 20.3 27.6 35.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 57.3 59.2 59.6 118.7 70.2 64.1 32.6 43.4 55.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 37.7 46.6 54.5 115.5 68.0 62.6 23.4 33.2 44.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 42.1 41.5 51.1 117.0 68.6 61.7 24.1 31.5 40.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 41.1 42.3 52.3 118.3 69.4 64.0 20.8 29.5 39.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 37.1 42.9 48.7 110.2 64.1 57.4 19.8 31.1 44.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 81.0 90.0 76.8 129.8 76.9 70.0 46.3 60.5 75.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 39.5 43.7 48.4 126.2 73.3 68.0 20.9 28.9 38.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------