***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 -2.0 -0.5 0.5 -0.6 42.3 46.6 -1.5 0.2 1.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 -1.7 -0.1 0.7 -0.4 45.0 48.0 -1.3 0.3 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 0.5 1.9 0.7 -0.5 43.9 47.4 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -6.2 -4.9 -2.3 -0.7 41.9 46.7 -5.7 -4.1 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 -2.5 -1.2 -1.8 -0.6 43.2 47.3 -2.0 -0.7 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 -1.0 -2.2 -4.2 -0.7 41.6 46.4 -2.9 -1.6 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 -1.5 0.0 0.7 -0.4 44.9 48.0 -1.1 0.5 1.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -6.0 -7.7 -3.9 -0.8 40.8 46.2 -8.5 -6.7 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 -1.4 0.0 -1.5 -0.6 43.4 47.3 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 -1.2 -0.1 -3.2 -0.7 41.7 46.4 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 -1.6 -0.4 -2.5 -0.7 42.2 46.8 -1.1 0.1 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -1.8 -3.2 -0.8 41.1 46.5 -2.4 -1.1 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -1.8 -0.9 -3.6 -0.8 40.3 45.3 -1.5 -0.2 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 -0.8 0.4 -1.5 -0.5 43.9 48.0 -0.5 1.0 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -1.1 -0.1 -1.3 -0.8 39.8 45.3 -0.6 0.7 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -1.0 0.0 -3.2 -0.8 41.3 46.1 -0.6 0.7 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -1.1 0.4 0.7 -0.3 46.3 48.5 -0.7 0.7 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 -3.1 -2.2 -3.8 -0.9 40.2 45.5 -2.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -1.7 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 44.7 47.9 -1.3 0.4 1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -6.0 -5.2 -5.3 -1.0 39.1 44.8 -5.8 -4.2 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -1.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 43.5 47.1 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -1.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.3 45.8 48.2 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -1.9 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 44.6 48.0 -1.5 0.0 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -1.6 -0.3 -1.8 -0.6 42.7 47.0 -1.1 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -1.8 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 41.7 46.0 -1.4 0.1 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 -1.9 -1.0 -3.7 -1.0 38.5 44.6 -1.4 -0.2 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -1.9 -0.5 0.0 -0.6 42.4 46.6 -1.4 0.3 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -2.6 -1.6 -2.1 -0.7 41.2 46.3 -2.2 -1.0 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -4.7 -3.6 -4.2 -0.9 40.2 45.7 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 -1.5 0.1 0.7 -0.4 44.4 47.8 -1.1 0.6 2.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------