***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 -2.3 -3.0 -2.6 -2.5 16.3 22.9 -1.6 -0.4 0.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 -3.1 -3.5 -2.4 -2.2 19.0 25.0 -2.3 -1.1 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 -0.7 -1.2 -2.2 -2.2 19.5 25.4 0.0 1.2 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -7.0 -7.6 -5.0 -2.3 19.4 25.6 -6.2 -4.9 -3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 -3.2 -3.6 -4.5 -2.4 18.7 25.2 -2.6 -1.5 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 -4.2 -5.1 -7.5 -3.3 10.0 16.4 -3.2 -2.3 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -2.5 -2.3 18.5 24.4 -2.1 -0.9 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 -9.7 -10.6 -6.9 -2.9 13.9 21.9 -8.7 -7.5 -6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 -2.1 -2.5 -3.9 -2.0 21.8 28.2 -1.6 -0.6 0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 -2.2 -2.8 -5.9 -2.6 17.2 24.6 -1.6 -0.6 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 -2.4 -2.9 -4.9 -2.3 18.7 25.9 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 -3.7 -4.5 -6.0 -2.8 14.6 22.5 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 -3.2 -4.2 -6.6 -3.2 10.4 17.9 -2.3 -1.2 -0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -1.7 -2.0 -4.0 -2.0 22.6 29.4 -1.3 -0.3 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 -2.3 -2.6 -3.3 -1.9 21.9 27.5 -1.7 -0.6 0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 -1.9 -2.5 -5.8 -2.7 14.9 21.9 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -2.5 -2.2 19.1 25.1 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 -4.2 -4.7 -6.4 -2.5 17.9 25.5 -3.7 -2.7 -1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -2.4 -2.1 20.1 26.0 -2.2 -1.0 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 -8.5 -9.9 -8.4 -3.2 10.0 18.1 -7.2 -5.8 -4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 -2.5 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 19.8 26.1 -2.0 -0.9 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 -3.0 -3.3 -2.3 -2.0 21.1 26.9 -2.4 -1.2 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 -2.8 -3.1 -2.4 -1.9 21.7 27.6 -2.3 -1.2 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 -2.4 -2.7 -4.1 -2.0 21.7 28.6 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 -2.7 -3.3 -3.7 -2.5 17.1 23.7 -2.1 -1.1 -0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 -3.2 -4.4 -7.3 -3.8 6.9 14.1 -2.1 -1.1 -0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 -2.8 -3.6 -3.1 -2.6 15.9 22.6 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 -3.7 -4.1 -4.6 -2.3 19.1 25.2 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 -5.7 -6.4 -7.0 -2.6 16.1 24.2 -4.9 -3.7 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 -2.7 -3.2 -2.4 -2.2 18.2 24.4 -1.9 -0.7 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------