***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.5 6.0 5.7 -2.1 31.7 35.3 6.2 8.5 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 5.2 6.0 -1.8 34.1 37.2 5.0 7.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.5 5.9 6.0 -2.2 31.9 35.5 6.1 8.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -1.3 -0.5 2.9 -2.1 32.7 36.6 -0.4 1.8 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.3 5.8 4.1 -2.5 29.8 34.0 6.2 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 4.3 3.9 1.5 -3.4 21.5 27.5 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.3 4.8 5.8 -1.8 33.3 36.6 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -2.9 -2.7 2.9 -2.6 28.6 33.9 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 5.9 6.3 5.1 -2.4 30.6 34.8 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.9 6.2 3.6 -2.6 29.2 33.9 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 5.7 6.1 4.2 -2.6 28.4 33.2 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 5.3 5.6 3.6 -2.6 28.0 33.4 6.3 8.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 5.6 5.5 3.2 -3.0 24.4 30.0 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.1 6.7 5.6 -2.1 33.5 37.4 6.6 9.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.8 5.5 4.7 -1.9 33.7 37.6 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 5.9 6.2 3.4 -2.8 26.4 31.6 7.1 9.4 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.1 4.8 5.9 -1.7 34.2 37.5 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.8 6.2 3.4 -2.3 31.2 35.8 6.5 8.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 5.2 6.2 -1.8 34.2 37.3 5.1 7.5 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 1.5 2.0 1.5 -2.1 31.1 36.2 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.8 6.1 5.6 -2.4 30.2 34.2 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.6 5.5 6.3 -1.6 35.1 38.2 5.2 7.6 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.3 5.8 6.3 -1.9 33.8 37.2 5.7 8.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.1 6.5 5.2 -2.2 31.9 36.0 6.7 9.0 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.2 4.3 -2.2 30.6 34.5 5.5 7.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 5.5 5.1 2.2 -3.1 22.4 28.5 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.1 5.4 5.1 -2.1 30.7 34.6 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 4.8 5.5 3.6 -2.2 31.5 35.8 5.8 8.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 2.0 2.5 2.9 -2.1 32.2 37.0 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.6 5.1 5.9 -1.9 33.5 36.7 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------