***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 6.3 7.9 7.6 -1.2 38.6 41.2 7.1 9.5 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 6.5 7.9 7.6 -1.1 39.3 41.9 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 7.0 8.6 8.1 -1.1 39.7 42.0 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.1 1.8 5.4 -1.0 40.6 42.7 0.7 3.1 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 7.2 9.1 6.4 -0.9 41.4 43.2 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.8 8.7 4.8 -0.9 42.1 44.5 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.1 7.4 7.6 -1.1 38.3 41.2 6.7 8.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.2 -0.2 5.7 -0.6 44.5 46.2 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 7.3 9.4 7.0 -0.9 41.9 43.6 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.8 9.7 6.2 -0.7 43.7 45.3 8.2 10.6 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.8 9.7 6.6 -0.8 42.9 44.7 8.2 10.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.0 9.3 6.4 -0.7 43.6 45.7 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.3 10.1 5.6 -0.7 43.6 45.8 8.6 10.9 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.6 9.7 7.3 -0.7 43.6 45.2 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.3 7.8 5.9 -1.1 39.9 42.3 6.7 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.2 10.2 6.0 -0.8 42.6 44.8 8.8 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.8 7.0 7.5 -1.2 37.8 40.8 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.6 6.2 -0.6 44.9 46.5 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 6.3 7.9 7.9 -1.0 40.0 42.4 6.9 9.2 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.4 3.9 -0.4 45.8 47.5 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.1 8.9 7.5 -1.1 40.2 42.2 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.6 7.8 7.7 -1.0 39.2 41.7 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.1 8.8 8.2 -0.9 41.0 43.0 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.7 9.8 7.2 -0.7 43.3 44.9 8.3 10.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 6.4 8.0 6.1 -1.1 39.5 41.8 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.5 5.4 -0.8 41.9 44.4 8.3 10.5 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 6.7 8.2 7.0 -1.1 38.6 41.3 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.8 8.5 5.6 -1.1 40.4 42.7 7.3 10.0 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.0 5.5 5.4 -0.5 45.5 47.1 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 6.4 7.8 7.7 -1.1 39.2 41.7 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------