***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.4 10.1 9.8 0.1 50.6 50.3 7.8 10.0 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.5 9.7 0.0 50.1 50.1 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 8.2 10.8 10.2 0.0 50.0 50.0 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 3.3 2.6 7.4 0.1 51.0 51.2 0.2 2.5 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.7 8.3 0.0 49.8 49.9 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.1 6.4 0.0 50.1 50.4 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 7.8 10.2 9.7 0.0 49.9 49.8 8.1 10.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.3 7.0 -0.1 49.4 49.3 -1.6 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 8.1 10.7 8.8 -0.1 49.5 49.4 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.1 10.6 7.7 -0.1 49.3 49.1 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.4 8.1 -0.1 48.7 49.0 8.3 10.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.9 9.8 7.8 -0.2 48.4 48.8 7.9 10.0 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.6 7.0 -0.2 48.5 49.0 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.4 11.2 9.0 0.1 50.7 50.2 8.8 11.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.8 9.9 8.1 0.0 50.0 50.8 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.8 10.9 7.6 -0.1 49.0 49.4 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.0 9.6 0.0 50.3 49.9 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 10.4 7.5 0.0 50.3 49.7 8.1 10.4 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.4 10.0 0.0 50.1 50.2 8.2 10.4 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.0 5.1 0.2 51.8 50.9 3.9 5.8 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 8.4 10.8 9.6 0.0 50.2 49.9 8.7 10.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.8 9.8 0.1 51.1 50.6 8.4 10.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.0 10.2 0.0 49.8 49.9 8.8 11.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 8.5 11.1 8.9 0.0 49.8 49.5 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.2 8.3 0.1 50.9 50.6 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.2 6.8 -0.2 47.8 48.8 8.5 10.5 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 8.0 10.5 9.1 0.0 50.5 50.1 8.4 10.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.1 7.6 0.0 50.2 50.7 7.6 10.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.6 6.7 0.1 50.9 50.1 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 7.9 10.3 9.7 0.0 50.0 50.1 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------