***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 6.2 5.9 6.2 -2.0 24.9 29.5 6.9 8.6 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 5.8 5.6 6.4 -1.9 26.1 30.6 6.4 8.2 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 6.4 6.2 6.6 -2.1 25.1 29.7 7.1 8.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -0.8 -0.7 3.7 -2.0 27.3 31.4 0.0 1.7 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 6.2 6.1 4.7 -2.3 23.9 28.5 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 5.2 4.6 2.4 -2.9 16.9 22.5 6.5 8.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 5.4 5.1 6.2 -1.9 24.7 29.4 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -2.7 -2.9 3.4 -2.5 20.9 26.5 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 6.5 6.5 5.5 -2.2 24.3 29.1 7.5 9.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 6.4 6.2 4.1 -2.4 22.3 27.6 7.5 9.1 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 6.5 6.2 4.8 -2.4 22.4 27.5 7.5 9.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 6.2 5.7 4.1 -2.5 20.4 26.1 7.1 8.6 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 6.6 6.1 3.7 -2.7 18.4 24.1 7.7 9.3 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.0 6.8 5.9 -2.0 26.7 31.5 7.5 9.4 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 5.4 5.6 5.1 -1.8 28.6 32.5 6.2 8.1 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 6.8 6.6 4.1 -2.5 20.9 26.1 8.0 9.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 5.4 5.1 6.2 -1.9 25.3 30.0 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 6.2 6.1 3.9 -2.2 23.7 29.2 7.1 8.8 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.8 5.6 6.6 -1.8 26.9 31.3 6.4 8.2 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 2.1 2.0 1.7 -2.3 21.8 27.6 3.1 4.6 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 6.5 6.3 6.1 -2.2 23.6 28.4 7.4 9.1 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.9 5.7 6.6 -1.7 27.2 31.6 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.4 6.3 6.8 -1.9 27.1 31.6 7.0 8.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 7.0 6.7 5.6 -2.1 24.9 30.0 7.6 9.2 10.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 5.8 5.5 4.9 -2.1 24.6 29.2 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 6.2 5.5 2.8 -3.0 14.5 20.6 7.5 8.9 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 6.2 5.8 5.6 -2.1 23.7 28.7 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 5.7 5.6 4.1 -2.1 26.2 30.4 6.6 8.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.2 3.3 -2.2 24.0 29.5 3.1 4.6 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 5.7 5.5 6.3 -1.9 25.7 30.3 6.3 8.1 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------