***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 2.2 2.7 2.3 29.3 26.3 20.1 3.6 6.4 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 1.2 1.5 1.9 27.0 26.5 18.5 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 2.2 2.9 2.7 33.4 29.4 21.9 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 4.9 6.3 3.8 39.4 33.6 25.5 6.2 9.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 4.9 6.0 4.2 44.2 35.4 28.0 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.9 5.8 5.6 61.6 47.2 38.0 3.8 6.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 1.3 1.6 1.7 25.4 24.6 17.1 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 11.0 14.4 6.3 59.8 44.2 35.8 11.6 16.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.5 4.3 4.0 43.2 34.6 27.4 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.8 6.6 6.0 55.5 41.0 33.9 5.0 8.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 4.2 5.5 5.0 50.0 39.3 30.8 4.7 7.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 5.1 7.8 5.3 57.1 44.2 33.7 5.6 9.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.0 7.4 5.9 58.7 44.5 34.7 5.3 8.6 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 3.8 4.8 4.2 37.8 31.9 26.1 5.1 8.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.5 3.6 3.1 38.7 38.2 27.6 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.8 5.4 4.8 50.4 40.8 31.7 4.3 6.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 1.2 1.6 1.8 27.3 27.5 18.8 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.7 6.2 6.0 54.7 40.2 33.5 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 1.6 2.1 2.2 29.6 27.9 19.7 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.7 8.8 6.9 58.2 42.5 35.7 6.4 11.0 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 2.5 3.3 3.3 37.1 31.4 24.1 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 1.7 2.3 2.0 28.6 28.2 19.5 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 1.6 2.4 2.7 33.1 29.7 21.6 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 3.8 5.0 4.5 44.0 35.1 28.5 4.6 8.2 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 2.3 2.9 3.0 31.8 27.8 21.6 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.1 6.7 5.6 62.7 48.3 37.1 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 2.2 2.5 2.3 28.2 24.9 19.6 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.6 3.7 3.9 43.7 38.4 28.8 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 10.5 12.9 6.2 54.7 39.7 33.5 10.8 16.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 1.4 1.7 2.0 28.1 26.3 18.5 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------