***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.0 10.9 88.7 58.0 48.1 2.8 6.0 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.4 9.5 86.7 57.6 46.3 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.4 11.1 90.7 58.7 48.6 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.5 13.1 92.3 59.2 47.8 5.4 9.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.7 13.4 94.1 59.6 48.7 5.3 9.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.3 12.7 87.6 55.8 46.5 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.8 9.3 87.7 58.1 46.4 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.9 18.9 15.6 99.4 61.3 49.3 8.3 14.0 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.4 13.9 93.5 59.1 48.9 4.5 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.0 15.1 94.7 59.1 48.9 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.0 13.4 96.5 60.0 49.3 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.1 13.4 96.2 60.1 48.4 4.1 7.0 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.9 7.8 13.0 88.8 56.9 47.7 3.7 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.3 14.9 14.2 87.8 56.3 46.9 6.4 12.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.2 11.5 86.4 58.5 44.9 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.8 12.8 91.9 58.2 48.6 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.4 8.6 79.9 55.3 44.3 3.4 5.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.2 9.9 14.9 88.1 56.1 47.1 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.6 10.0 87.1 57.4 46.7 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 11.4 19.7 95.1 59.4 48.6 5.2 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.0 12.3 89.7 57.7 48.6 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.3 7.9 9.4 81.1 55.4 44.5 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.4 8.6 10.9 87.8 57.3 47.4 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.0 13.3 87.2 56.1 46.9 6.6 11.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.8 12.4 88.3 57.4 48.7 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.7 12.5 86.3 56.6 46.6 2.9 5.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.8 11.5 88.8 57.9 48.4 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.4 12.1 89.2 58.1 46.0 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 14.8 15.9 88.2 56.3 47.1 7.5 12.4 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.7 10.1 90.7 59.4 47.6 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------