***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.6 9.3 77.9 53.3 42.1 2.4 4.2 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.0 8.2 78.2 53.3 41.7 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.3 9.3 78.3 53.2 42.2 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.3 10.9 80.9 55.0 42.5 3.5 6.3 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.7 11.4 85.0 56.0 44.9 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.8 11.8 87.4 55.6 44.4 2.3 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.7 3.6 8.0 77.3 52.5 41.2 1.8 3.3 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.9 11.0 12.4 89.1 56.2 46.2 4.9 9.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.3 12.0 85.5 55.8 45.7 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.0 13.0 89.9 56.9 47.3 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.8 11.2 89.2 57.0 45.4 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.5 5.4 10.8 87.7 55.6 44.7 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.3 11.6 86.0 54.8 44.8 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.2 13.1 86.3 56.0 45.2 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.2 9.7 77.0 55.2 40.2 2.8 5.3 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.9 11.2 88.2 56.5 44.8 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.4 7.6 71.8 50.1 39.8 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.0 6.7 14.0 91.3 57.2 48.4 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.2 8.6 79.4 53.9 42.2 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.2 16.3 89.0 56.1 46.4 2.4 4.3 6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.5 10.5 80.7 54.2 43.6 2.2 4.7 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.4 2.7 8.0 71.6 50.1 40.5 1.3 2.7 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.9 4.7 9.5 81.9 54.9 43.0 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.6 12.3 87.1 56.3 46.6 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.1 10.9 78.9 53.0 42.2 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.0 11.1 83.7 54.4 43.8 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.6 10.1 78.9 53.2 42.3 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.3 10.6 82.9 56.3 42.3 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.0 14.8 91.4 57.2 48.3 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.1 8.5 78.0 53.3 41.5 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------