***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 17.9 16.7 26.9 61.6 27.2 28.6 19.4 28.2 38.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 17.1 16.3 23.1 60.3 27.6 27.9 18.7 26.5 35.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 22.5 21.8 27.8 63.1 27.0 28.8 25.3 36.4 49.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 26.9 30.0 35.7 71.1 34.6 34.2 29.0 39.1 50.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 25.1 28.7 36.8 73.1 35.1 34.7 27.5 37.1 48.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 35.3 24.0 38.8 78.1 38.5 37.0 21.2 30.3 40.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 15.1 15.1 22.5 59.9 27.4 27.7 17.2 24.5 32.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 48.0 54.8 43.2 79.5 38.1 36.7 51.7 62.4 73.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 20.2 23.4 37.5 72.9 33.8 34.0 22.9 31.8 41.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 27.9 32.2 42.6 77.3 36.0 35.7 30.6 39.6 49.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 20.1 24.5 37.8 76.6 37.2 36.1 22.2 32.3 44.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 23.2 28.0 37.6 77.6 37.5 36.1 25.5 35.1 45.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 28.2 31.2 39.6 76.9 36.5 35.9 29.4 38.1 47.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 32.8 31.6 38.1 66.7 26.3 29.2 36.3 48.5 62.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 18.0 21.8 31.3 68.6 36.7 34.5 19.5 31.9 48.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 23.0 26.5 37.3 76.4 36.8 35.9 24.8 32.9 42.0 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 15.1 14.9 21.1 56.3 25.5 25.8 18.0 25.3 33.8 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 24.0 26.4 43.4 75.0 32.7 33.6 26.6 36.5 48.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 20.4 19.7 24.6 61.7 27.5 28.4 22.1 29.8 38.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 24.9 29.9 54.0 78.4 36.5 35.6 27.7 38.7 50.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 19.9 21.3 32.6 67.3 30.3 31.1 22.7 33.0 45.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 16.4 15.6 22.8 57.1 24.2 25.5 19.1 26.5 34.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 18.7 18.0 27.8 64.1 27.3 29.1 20.3 27.6 35.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 30.1 29.8 36.6 68.7 28.5 30.7 32.6 43.4 55.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 21.2 20.4 32.1 63.3 27.4 29.1 23.4 33.2 44.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 23.4 25.6 37.4 75.4 36.6 35.5 24.1 31.5 40.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 19.2 18.0 28.7 62.0 27.0 28.6 20.8 29.5 39.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 18.9 22.4 34.4 72.7 37.4 35.5 19.8 31.1 44.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 42.7 45.9 46.1 75.2 32.6 33.6 46.3 60.5 75.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 19.0 18.7 24.4 61.7 28.0 28.7 20.9 28.9 38.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------