***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 7.3 7.6 5.9 0.5 56.7 56.4 4.9 6.9 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 6.3 7.2 6.3 0.9 61.0 60.3 3.8 5.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 7.0 7.1 6.1 0.3 53.7 53.6 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.7 -2.2 1.9 -1.4 32.9 35.1 -2.2 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 7.3 5.8 3.6 -0.6 42.8 43.8 4.5 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 6.3 5.1 2.5 -0.4 44.8 46.5 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 6.0 7.2 6.4 1.2 64.1 63.2 3.4 5.5 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 -1.7 -1.9 3.7 0.2 52.9 53.2 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 7.3 6.6 5.0 -0.2 47.8 48.3 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 7.3 6.9 4.3 0.0 50.4 50.8 4.7 6.8 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 7.6 6.5 4.0 -0.3 46.0 46.8 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 7.0 6.8 4.2 0.2 52.9 53.2 4.3 6.4 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 7.5 8.0 4.7 0.7 58.8 58.4 4.7 6.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 7.5 7.6 6.0 0.4 54.4 54.2 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.7 4.2 3.3 -1.2 35.5 37.8 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 7.9 6.9 3.8 -0.2 47.0 47.8 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 5.9 6.9 6.3 1.2 63.9 63.0 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 6.7 6.2 3.8 0.0 49.8 50.3 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 6.4 7.0 6.4 0.7 58.8 58.3 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 3.2 3.3 2.4 0.4 54.8 55.2 0.8 2.8 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 7.2 6.7 5.5 0.0 49.5 49.8 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 6.3 7.2 6.4 1.0 61.5 60.8 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 6.6 7.0 6.5 0.6 56.7 56.3 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 7.4 7.0 5.3 0.1 50.6 50.8 4.7 6.9 9.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 6.3 6.0 4.3 0.1 51.9 52.0 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 8.8 7.9 4.1 0.8 61.4 60.7 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 6.6 7.2 5.5 0.7 58.6 58.2 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.4 3.9 2.4 -1.6 30.0 32.8 4.3 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 3.2 2.9 3.3 0.2 52.3 52.7 0.4 2.7 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 6.2 6.9 6.3 0.8 59.9 59.3 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------