***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.8 7.4 0.0 49.9 49.4 6.5 8.8 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.6 7.8 7.5 0.0 50.4 49.6 5.3 7.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.8 8.6 7.6 -0.2 48.1 48.0 6.4 8.9 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 3.2 1.7 5.0 -0.5 45.1 45.3 0.0 2.3 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.8 8.0 5.3 -0.7 42.9 43.7 6.6 9.0 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.3 4.0 -0.7 42.7 44.0 6.0 8.2 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.5 7.4 0.1 50.9 50.1 5.1 7.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.5 -1.3 4.0 -1.2 38.2 40.0 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.4 8.7 6.1 -0.6 44.6 45.3 7.0 9.5 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.3 8.1 4.9 -1.0 40.5 41.9 7.0 9.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.3 8.5 5.2 -0.7 43.1 43.9 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.7 7.5 4.8 -1.0 39.9 41.4 6.6 8.8 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.1 4.4 -0.9 40.7 42.3 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.6 8.2 6.2 -1.0 40.7 42.0 7.0 9.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.3 5.8 0.2 51.7 51.0 5.7 8.1 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.8 8.9 4.9 -0.7 43.2 44.1 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.2 7.2 0.0 50.3 49.5 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.6 7.5 4.2 -1.3 37.1 39.3 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.9 7.8 7.6 -0.1 49.1 48.6 5.4 7.9 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.0 2.5 1.7 -1.8 31.9 34.9 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.1 8.8 6.9 -0.3 46.9 47.1 6.8 9.2 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.9 7.8 7.3 -0.2 48.3 47.9 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.1 7.5 -0.3 46.5 46.6 6.1 8.6 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.3 6.1 -0.9 41.5 42.8 7.0 9.4 11.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.0 5.7 -0.1 48.6 48.3 5.8 8.2 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.7 7.6 4.0 -1.0 38.7 40.7 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.4 6.6 0.0 49.8 49.2 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.0 8.4 5.4 -0.3 47.3 47.3 6.1 8.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 2.6 3.4 3.2 -1.5 35.5 38.0 3.1 5.2 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.6 7.8 7.6 0.0 50.4 49.7 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------