***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 6.1 7.0 7.9 -1.4 33.9 38.0 6.9 9.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 6.4 7.4 8.0 -1.2 35.6 39.3 7.0 9.2 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.9 7.6 8.0 -1.6 33.3 37.6 7.6 9.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -0.9 0.2 5.7 -1.7 32.7 36.1 0.3 2.7 5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 6.5 7.4 6.0 -1.9 31.4 35.3 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 5.8 6.9 4.4 -1.9 30.9 35.2 7.2 9.5 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 6.0 7.2 7.9 -1.1 36.1 39.6 6.8 8.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -3.1 -2.3 4.7 -2.0 29.8 34.2 -1.9 0.1 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 7.0 7.7 6.6 -1.9 31.4 35.7 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 6.9 7.7 5.5 -2.0 30.2 34.6 8.1 10.4 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 6.7 7.9 5.8 -1.8 31.5 35.4 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 6.6 7.4 5.5 -1.9 30.4 34.8 7.7 9.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 7.4 8.1 5.0 -1.9 30.1 34.9 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.0 7.7 6.7 -1.9 31.2 35.7 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.9 7.1 6.2 -1.4 35.5 38.4 6.7 9.2 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 7.3 8.4 5.4 -1.8 31.3 35.3 8.6 11.0 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 5.8 7.0 7.8 -1.1 36.4 39.8 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 6.2 7.2 4.9 -2.1 29.5 34.1 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.1 7.1 8.1 -1.4 34.7 38.7 6.9 9.2 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 1.9 2.9 2.7 -2.0 28.0 32.7 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.0 7.7 7.3 -1.7 32.3 36.5 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 6.0 7.2 7.8 -1.3 35.0 38.8 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.7 7.9 -1.6 33.3 37.6 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 7.1 7.8 6.6 -1.9 31.1 35.7 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.3 7.1 6.2 -1.5 33.6 37.2 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 7.1 7.8 4.7 -1.8 29.9 35.0 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.6 7.5 7.1 -1.4 34.3 38.0 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 5.9 7.2 5.9 -1.7 33.3 36.6 7.2 9.8 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 2.1 3.0 4.0 -2.0 29.2 33.8 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 6.3 7.3 8.1 -1.3 35.0 39.0 7.0 9.2 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------