***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.0 10.1 -0.3 46.5 46.8 8.3 10.4 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 8.4 10.3 9.9 -0.3 45.8 46.2 8.8 10.8 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.6 10.2 -0.3 46.2 46.7 9.0 11.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.2 2.2 8.2 -0.4 45.1 45.9 0.6 2.9 5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.7 10.5 8.5 -0.4 45.4 46.5 9.0 11.1 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.3 6.9 -0.2 47.7 48.2 7.7 9.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.2 10.1 9.9 -0.3 46.3 46.7 8.5 10.5 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.5 0.2 7.1 -0.5 45.2 46.5 -1.2 0.7 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.6 9.1 -0.4 45.9 47.0 9.0 11.1 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.6 10.5 7.9 -0.4 45.5 46.7 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.8 10.5 8.3 -0.4 46.2 47.4 8.8 10.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.9 7.9 -0.4 46.1 47.4 8.3 10.3 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.8 7.5 -0.3 46.8 47.9 9.3 11.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.4 10.8 9.0 -0.4 45.2 46.3 9.2 11.4 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.7 8.5 -0.4 45.8 46.3 7.9 10.2 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.0 8.0 -0.3 46.4 47.5 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.7 9.6 -0.4 45.1 45.8 8.2 10.3 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 10.1 7.2 -0.5 44.9 46.1 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 8.2 10.2 10.1 -0.4 45.6 46.1 8.6 10.8 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.9 5.5 4.6 -0.7 42.9 44.3 4.4 6.3 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.7 9.7 -0.4 46.1 46.9 9.1 11.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 8.3 10.3 9.7 -0.5 44.4 45.2 8.8 11.0 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.8 10.8 10.1 -0.4 45.6 46.3 9.1 11.3 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.8 8.9 -0.4 45.8 46.8 9.2 11.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.0 8.5 -0.3 46.1 46.5 8.3 10.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.6 7.2 -0.3 47.0 48.0 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.4 9.3 -0.3 46.5 46.8 8.7 10.8 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.5 9.8 8.4 -0.4 45.5 46.4 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.5 5.3 6.1 -0.5 44.7 45.9 3.9 6.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 8.2 10.2 10.1 -0.3 46.1 46.5 8.6 10.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------