***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9.5 8.4 7.8 -0.3 44.9 46.3 7.1 8.9 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.2 7.9 -0.2 47.4 48.1 6.7 8.4 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.7 8.4 8.0 -0.4 42.9 44.5 7.4 9.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.7 0.3 5.2 -1.0 34.7 37.5 0.2 1.9 3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.9 7.9 5.9 -0.9 36.5 39.1 7.5 9.2 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.1 4.5 -0.8 37.2 40.1 6.7 8.3 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.0 7.9 -0.1 49.1 49.5 6.4 8.1 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.1 -1.3 4.8 -0.8 37.2 39.3 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.0 8.4 6.7 -0.7 38.8 41.1 7.8 9.4 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.2 5.6 -0.8 37.5 39.8 7.7 9.4 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.1 8.3 5.8 -0.8 37.8 40.2 7.8 9.5 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.4 7.8 5.6 -0.8 38.4 40.5 7.3 8.9 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.1 8.7 5.4 -0.6 40.7 42.6 8.0 9.5 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.5 7.0 -0.7 39.2 41.1 7.8 9.6 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.0 7.2 5.9 -0.7 39.3 41.2 6.4 8.4 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.5 8.8 5.5 -0.8 38.0 40.5 8.3 9.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.4 7.7 7.7 -0.1 48.5 48.9 6.2 7.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 7.7 5.1 -1.0 35.6 38.1 7.4 9.1 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.1 8.0 8.0 -0.3 45.6 46.7 6.7 8.5 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.5 2.8 -1.0 34.0 36.5 3.4 4.8 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.9 8.4 7.4 -0.6 40.6 42.6 7.6 9.3 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.1 8.1 7.8 -0.2 46.1 46.9 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.6 8.3 8.0 -0.4 43.2 44.6 7.2 9.0 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.1 8.4 6.7 -0.8 38.4 40.6 7.9 9.5 11.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.0 7.7 6.2 -0.5 42.5 44.1 6.7 8.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.4 5.0 -0.6 40.5 42.5 7.7 9.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.3 7.1 -0.3 45.6 46.8 7.1 8.7 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.7 7.1 5.5 -1.0 34.9 37.7 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.0 3.6 4.2 -1.0 35.6 38.0 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.9 8.0 8.0 -0.2 46.8 47.7 6.6 8.3 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------