***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 2.5 1.9 3.2 31.6 18.8 16.9 3.7 6.5 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 1.5 1.7 3.2 37.4 28.7 22.9 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 2.0 1.5 3.6 34.5 19.3 17.5 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.8 4.8 6.2 54.7 33.3 28.2 4.8 7.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 3.0 2.2 4.5 37.5 18.5 18.0 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 2.6 2.4 4.2 37.0 22.8 20.4 3.6 6.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 1.2 1.1 3.1 36.6 25.6 21.5 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 8.2 7.2 5.4 42.6 22.0 21.5 10.0 14.7 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 1.6 0.8 3.8 31.2 13.6 14.5 3.0 6.0 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 2.7 1.6 4.9 37.3 17.5 18.1 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 2.3 1.6 4.0 34.8 17.5 17.4 3.5 6.4 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 3.1 2.5 4.5 39.8 21.4 20.5 4.3 7.5 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 2.9 2.3 4.0 33.9 16.3 16.6 4.8 8.0 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 3.2 3.1 5.2 40.9 23.6 21.0 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.3 4.0 5.9 64.6 45.9 36.6 2.3 4.8 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 2.6 2.1 3.9 34.5 17.4 17.0 4.0 6.7 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 1.6 1.8 3.1 37.6 29.2 23.6 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 2.8 1.9 5.8 41.4 19.8 19.9 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 1.6 1.7 3.5 37.3 27.2 22.1 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 4.6 4.7 7.8 49.9 27.2 25.0 6.0 10.7 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 1.5 0.9 3.4 30.0 15.0 14.7 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 1.9 2.2 3.5 39.7 30.4 24.8 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 1.8 1.9 4.0 38.0 25.0 21.1 2.7 4.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 3.2 2.5 4.8 38.2 19.2 18.6 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 1.9 1.0 4.1 34.3 17.0 16.9 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 3.0 3.1 4.8 41.9 25.8 22.8 4.0 6.6 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 2.0 1.2 3.4 31.2 15.9 15.8 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 2.3 3.2 5.8 57.2 36.8 30.2 2.6 5.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 5.7 5.1 6.5 44.1 21.7 21.0 8.3 14.5 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 1.6 1.5 3.3 36.4 26.1 21.3 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------