***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 8.6 11.7 109.0 65.4 49.9 2.8 5.2 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.4 11.7 113.7 67.2 51.5 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.3 11.5 12.6 116.4 67.9 51.3 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 11.6 13.7 107.8 65.1 50.8 4.0 7.4 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.4 10.6 15.3 123.5 70.6 56.1 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.3 12.7 17.7 128.5 72.2 61.0 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.6 8.1 11.0 109.6 65.8 50.8 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 11.9 19.8 18.8 142.1 76.3 63.0 6.0 10.0 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.9 10.4 15.6 126.6 71.6 55.5 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.8 13.1 17.9 135.8 74.6 60.2 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.9 10.6 15.7 131.5 73.0 58.8 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.4 16.2 16.4 136.6 74.6 61.3 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 12.2 13.9 17.0 132.2 73.3 61.7 3.9 7.0 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.9 14.9 17.2 126.0 71.5 56.8 3.6 7.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.6 13.4 13.6 112.0 67.3 54.2 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.5 11.3 15.7 126.3 71.4 58.7 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.8 9.2 11.4 114.3 67.8 50.7 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.8 11.7 19.9 136.0 75.0 61.4 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.4 12.2 115.5 67.8 52.1 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.1 14.9 24.2 140.0 75.9 64.1 3.3 6.4 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.8 11.0 13.7 122.0 70.0 53.6 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.8 9.1 12.4 117.6 68.7 52.6 2.8 5.1 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.2 8.3 13.2 117.9 68.6 53.4 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.6 11.4 16.6 126.7 71.7 56.6 2.8 5.5 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.0 10.4 14.1 110.0 65.9 52.4 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 12.2 14.8 17.6 143.7 76.4 63.8 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.2 8.5 12.8 106.6 64.5 50.7 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.5 9.9 13.9 112.2 67.0 53.6 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 16.4 19.5 21.8 137.6 75.4 62.9 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.3 11.6 112.6 66.6 50.8 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------