***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.3 9.5 90.4 57.9 49.4 3.2 6.3 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.3 9.0 80.5 53.8 46.9 3.7 6.5 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.2 10.1 91.5 57.2 48.2 3.2 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 12.9 13.0 107.2 65.0 52.5 5.1 8.6 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.0 12.4 12.5 104.7 63.2 51.5 4.5 8.3 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.4 15.4 115.3 67.7 55.9 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 6.7 6.1 8.8 79.9 53.3 47.0 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.1 20.4 14.0 105.7 63.5 51.8 8.6 14.4 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.4 12.1 102.8 62.1 50.5 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.8 11.0 13.6 105.1 62.8 51.4 4.2 7.5 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.4 12.2 107.0 64.2 52.1 3.5 6.2 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.9 12.6 107.0 64.5 52.5 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.3 13.9 109.4 65.6 54.0 3.8 6.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.4 12.8 96.3 58.2 48.1 4.7 9.8 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.8 12.0 13.3 113.0 67.8 53.4 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.1 13.1 113.1 67.0 54.5 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.3 5.7 8.6 77.2 53.4 45.8 3.1 5.3 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.7 15.0 106.6 63.3 52.2 3.8 7.1 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.2 9.4 84.1 54.8 47.1 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.9 18.1 106.1 63.5 52.1 4.8 8.2 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.0 10.9 99.7 60.9 50.0 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.8 9.4 82.6 54.6 46.4 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.8 10.2 90.6 56.9 47.9 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.0 12.8 100.1 60.3 49.8 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.0 11.7 94.9 59.6 50.7 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.8 14.1 110.6 66.0 53.0 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.5 10.5 89.6 57.3 49.7 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.1 13.5 115.6 68.3 54.2 2.7 5.8 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.4 16.2 16.2 106.5 63.3 52.4 6.6 11.3 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.4 9.1 82.9 54.0 47.2 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------