***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.6 10.9 104.5 63.9 48.5 1.9 3.2 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.6 4.8 10.7 100.0 62.2 48.4 1.5 3.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.1 10.7 96.4 60.0 45.8 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.1 7.9 11.0 87.1 57.0 44.6 3.9 6.6 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.1 10.4 81.9 53.8 42.9 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.3 11.1 76.3 51.0 43.4 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.6 10.6 101.0 62.6 48.8 1.9 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.8 11.6 81.9 53.6 44.2 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.4 10.5 81.9 53.3 42.7 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.4 6.4 11.2 79.1 51.8 42.4 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.6 6.5 9.7 78.5 52.1 42.2 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.4 9.9 80.6 53.4 44.1 2.8 5.0 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.3 5.9 10.5 78.6 52.1 44.6 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.2 12.6 87.6 55.9 44.4 3.4 6.6 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.7 10.9 91.6 59.8 45.8 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.2 9.8 78.1 51.9 43.2 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.3 10.3 99.2 61.7 48.8 1.8 3.1 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.6 12.5 78.8 51.4 42.2 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.1 5.7 10.8 98.7 61.4 47.2 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.2 16.1 88.2 56.3 46.8 2.4 4.3 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.5 5.7 10.2 88.4 56.5 43.7 2.2 4.5 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.4 3.8 10.6 97.6 60.4 47.8 1.3 2.7 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.3 11.0 95.0 59.3 45.3 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.2 6.9 11.7 82.9 53.3 42.2 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.1 6.0 12.7 102.3 62.4 48.3 2.0 3.9 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.8 10.9 79.4 54.3 45.8 1.7 3.3 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.3 6.5 12.3 106.5 64.3 49.4 2.3 4.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.9 10.3 83.8 56.0 43.8 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 8.6 13.6 80.5 52.6 43.1 4.1 7.9 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.7 10.8 101.5 62.8 48.3 1.5 3.0 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------