***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 17.2 23.3 35.2 84.5 42.6 38.9 18.6 27.1 37.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 17.1 23.1 34.7 84.8 45.3 42.1 17.8 25.3 34.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 23.0 30.2 36.9 85.3 42.1 38.9 24.4 35.5 48.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 42.4 35.6 43.9 89.9 47.8 44.0 26.7 37.0 48.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 23.7 30.8 42.7 87.2 43.7 40.8 24.8 34.8 46.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 19.4 27.3 48.4 91.2 47.8 46.5 19.7 28.4 38.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 15.7 21.3 33.5 83.6 44.4 41.3 16.7 23.7 31.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 65.8 59.5 49.9 93.4 48.8 45.5 49.4 60.3 71.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 18.5 25.3 42.0 85.5 41.4 38.5 20.8 30.0 40.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 25.6 33.2 47.6 89.2 44.0 41.1 26.9 37.0 48.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 18.6 25.5 41.6 88.1 44.6 41.8 18.7 29.1 42.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 38.0 31.6 43.3 91.7 48.0 45.2 23.6 32.9 43.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 40.9 33.7 45.3 89.6 45.7 44.6 27.2 36.0 45.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 33.0 41.3 47.9 88.4 43.3 41.5 34.0 46.1 59.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 37.4 34.9 43.7 97.3 55.5 49.5 17.9 30.1 45.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 35.6 28.8 42.4 88.8 45.8 43.7 22.7 31.0 40.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 16.8 22.8 33.4 84.1 45.8 42.0 17.6 24.8 33.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 23.8 31.0 53.3 90.8 44.7 42.0 24.3 34.5 46.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 20.9 26.9 35.9 85.5 44.7 41.8 21.8 29.3 37.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 43.2 38.9 66.2 97.1 52.3 49.0 26.3 37.3 49.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 19.5 26.5 38.2 84.8 41.6 38.0 21.7 31.8 43.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 17.4 24.3 35.8 86.3 46.4 43.0 18.6 25.8 34.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 19.3 24.8 38.4 86.3 43.6 41.2 20.5 27.4 35.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 29.0 36.2 46.0 87.2 41.5 39.2 31.2 41.9 54.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 20.1 26.9 42.5 86.2 43.1 40.2 21.3 31.0 42.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.8 30.7 47.2 94.6 51.0 47.9 23.1 30.3 38.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 18.5 24.1 39.1 84.3 41.8 39.1 19.9 28.5 38.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 35.5 30.0 43.4 93.5 51.5 46.7 18.2 29.1 42.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 41.6 54.4 58.0 92.6 46.9 44.3 42.7 56.9 73.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 19.6 25.8 34.9 84.9 45.0 41.6 20.4 28.2 37.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------