***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 3.1 2.8 2.7 91.1 87.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.6 89.5 85.9 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 3.4 5.1 2.5 2.6 91.3 87.6 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 -2.3 -0.5 0.0 2.7 90.5 87.8 -5.9 -4.5 -3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 0.4 1.9 0.5 2.8 91.7 88.7 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 -0.5 0.7 -1.2 2.8 90.0 87.3 -3.0 -2.0 -1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 1.3 2.8 2.5 2.6 89.5 85.6 -1.7 -0.5 0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 -5.1 -3.5 -0.7 2.9 90.2 87.4 -8.4 -7.2 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 1.5 2.9 1.0 2.8 90.4 87.2 -1.3 -0.3 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 1.3 2.6 -0.1 3.0 90.4 87.5 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 1.1 2.5 0.1 2.7 90.9 88.1 -1.6 -0.6 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 -0.1 1.1 -0.2 2.6 89.6 87.0 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 0.7 1.9 -0.5 2.6 89.1 86.5 -2.0 -0.9 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 1.7 3.0 1.1 2.7 90.1 87.2 -1.0 0.0 1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 1.4 2.5 0.4 2.4 87.5 85.0 -1.4 -0.4 0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 1.6 2.8 -0.3 2.6 89.8 87.2 -1.0 0.0 0.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 1.4 2.7 2.4 2.5 88.1 84.4 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 -0.9 0.3 -0.7 3.1 89.6 86.9 -3.4 -2.5 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 1.2 2.7 2.4 2.5 89.6 86.1 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 -3.2 -1.3 -2.0 3.3 90.6 87.4 -6.8 -5.5 -4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 1.2 2.7 2.0 2.7 91.2 87.6 -1.7 -0.6 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 0.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 88.6 84.9 -2.0 -0.9 0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 0.7 1.9 2.0 2.4 89.6 86.3 -2.0 -0.9 0.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 0.9 2.2 0.8 2.8 89.9 87.0 -1.7 -0.7 0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 0.9 2.3 1.2 2.8 91.6 88.5 -1.8 -0.8 0.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 0.7 1.9 -0.3 2.6 90.3 87.6 -1.9 -0.9 0.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 1.4 3.1 2.0 2.7 91.0 87.4 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 -0.2 1.0 0.3 2.6 89.4 86.9 -2.9 -1.9 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 -1.4 0.2 -1.2 3.1 89.8 86.9 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 1.5 3.1 2.6 2.6 90.3 86.5 -1.6 -0.4 0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------