***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 13.5 12.0 6.1 96.2 94.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 10.0 13.5 11.2 5.3 93.0 91.3 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 10.9 15.4 12.1 5.9 95.1 93.4 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 4.1 9.5 9.9 6.3 96.8 95.4 -1.9 0.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 11.1 16.7 11.2 6.6 96.7 95.5 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 9.9 15.6 10.2 6.9 97.3 95.8 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 9.6 13.3 11.1 5.4 93.4 91.6 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.5 5.9 10.0 6.2 96.1 94.7 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.3 16.3 12.0 6.4 96.2 94.8 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 11.1 15.8 11.0 6.3 95.7 94.2 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 11.5 16.9 11.3 6.6 96.5 95.2 5.2 7.4 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 10.8 15.9 10.6 6.2 96.2 94.9 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 11.3 16.5 10.8 6.4 96.3 95.0 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 11.5 14.6 11.2 5.2 91.1 89.3 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 9.9 14.4 10.8 6.1 96.0 94.7 4.3 6.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 11.8 17.4 11.0 6.6 96.7 95.3 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 9.3 12.2 10.5 5.0 91.9 90.2 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 10.5 14.5 10.3 6.0 94.4 92.6 4.6 6.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 10.2 13.9 11.4 5.3 92.9 91.2 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 6.7 11.2 8.3 5.9 95.6 93.8 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 11.1 16.1 12.3 6.4 96.2 94.8 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 10.0 13.0 10.7 4.8 91.4 89.7 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 10.6 14.1 11.6 5.2 92.4 90.7 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 11.2 14.9 11.4 5.6 93.1 91.3 5.1 7.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 9.9 15.1 11.0 6.4 96.8 95.5 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 10.8 16.5 9.8 6.1 97.2 96.0 4.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 10.3 15.3 11.4 6.1 96.2 94.8 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 10.8 16.0 10.7 6.4 96.5 95.1 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 7.1 11.4 9.5 5.9 94.7 92.8 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 9.8 13.8 11.6 5.6 94.1 92.4 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------