***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 12.4 11.9 1.3 63.5 59.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.6 11.8 1.2 62.9 59.0 9.2 11.2 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 13.5 12.7 12.0 1.1 61.8 57.9 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 4.1 4.9 10.0 1.4 64.1 59.1 1.0 3.1 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.1 12.8 10.3 1.2 61.6 57.6 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.1 8.6 1.1 61.9 57.5 8.1 9.9 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.3 11.7 1.2 63.5 59.4 8.9 10.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -1.2 1.7 8.8 0.9 59.2 56.2 -0.9 0.8 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 9.0 12.5 10.8 1.0 59.9 56.5 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.9 12.4 9.6 0.8 58.6 55.7 9.3 11.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.8 12.5 9.9 1.0 60.6 57.1 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.4 11.7 9.6 0.9 59.6 56.6 8.8 10.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.5 12.5 9.1 0.9 59.6 56.5 9.7 11.5 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.3 12.6 10.7 0.7 57.5 55.2 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 12.9 12.5 10.3 1.5 65.6 60.1 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 9.5 12.9 9.6 1.1 60.9 57.2 9.9 11.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.8 11.5 1.1 62.1 58.6 8.6 10.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.7 11.9 8.9 0.7 56.9 54.7 9.1 11.1 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.5 12.0 1.1 62.1 58.4 9.0 11.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.3 7.5 6.5 0.8 58.4 55.5 4.8 6.6 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.2 12.7 11.5 1.1 61.1 57.2 9.5 11.5 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.5 11.6 1.0 60.5 57.5 9.2 11.3 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 13.8 12.8 11.9 1.0 60.5 57.2 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.3 12.5 10.6 0.8 58.0 55.4 9.7 11.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.6 12.3 10.3 1.3 63.4 58.7 8.7 10.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.3 12.2 8.8 0.9 59.8 56.7 9.5 11.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.5 11.1 1.2 63.3 58.9 9.1 11.0 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 8.1 12.6 10.2 1.4 64.0 59.0 8.4 10.8 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.1 7.8 0.7 56.9 54.6 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.4 12.0 1.2 63.2 59.1 9.0 10.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------