***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9999.0 13.7 11.9 3.5 92.0 87.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 11.4 13.6 11.6 3.2 90.1 85.3 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 12.2 14.5 12.0 3.4 90.8 85.8 7.7 9.4 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 5.1 7.5 9.8 3.6 90.9 86.2 0.4 2.1 3.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 12.3 14.9 10.5 3.7 91.5 86.6 7.8 9.5 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 10.9 13.6 9.1 3.6 92.9 87.3 7.0 8.5 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 11.0 13.3 11.5 3.2 90.4 85.6 6.7 8.4 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 1.8 3.7 9.4 3.4 91.3 86.2 -1.5 -0.2 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 12.4 14.7 11.2 3.6 91.1 86.1 8.0 9.7 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 12.3 14.6 10.2 3.5 90.8 85.8 8.0 9.7 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 12.4 15.0 10.4 3.6 91.7 86.7 8.0 9.7 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 11.5 13.8 10.0 3.4 91.2 86.2 7.6 9.1 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 12.2 14.5 9.7 3.4 91.6 86.4 8.3 9.8 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 12.6 14.5 11.1 3.1 87.6 82.6 8.1 9.9 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 11.8 14.2 10.1 3.5 89.8 85.1 6.7 8.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 12.7 15.1 10.0 3.5 91.7 86.5 8.5 10.1 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 10.7 12.7 11.2 3.0 89.0 84.3 6.5 8.1 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 12.0 14.1 9.7 3.3 89.8 84.6 7.7 9.3 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 11.6 13.8 11.8 3.2 89.7 84.9 7.0 8.7 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 7.3 9.5 7.5 3.3 91.4 86.1 3.6 5.0 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 12.3 14.7 11.7 3.5 91.3 86.3 7.9 9.6 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 11.5 13.5 11.3 2.9 88.0 83.3 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 12.1 14.1 11.9 3.1 89.0 84.0 7.5 9.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 12.2 14.1 11.1 3.3 89.0 83.9 8.1 9.7 11.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 11.5 14.1 10.4 3.6 91.9 87.1 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 11.6 13.9 9.2 3.3 92.1 86.7 8.0 9.4 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 11.7 14.2 11.1 3.5 91.9 87.0 7.4 9.0 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 12.5 15.2 10.2 3.6 90.4 85.7 7.1 9.1 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 7.5 9.6 8.7 3.3 90.2 85.0 3.6 5.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 11.3 13.6 11.8 3.3 90.7 85.9 6.9 8.6 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------