***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 4.1 4.9 47.1 33.8 27.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 2.6 3.7 5.2 51.3 35.5 27.8 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 3.6 4.4 5.1 47.7 33.7 27.7 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 3.9 4.3 5.0 41.4 31.5 26.0 4.6 8.5 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.8 4.1 4.8 42.1 30.8 26.6 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 3.5 4.1 6.0 45.8 32.5 26.9 4.3 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 2.7 3.9 5.2 51.9 35.9 27.8 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 6.8 8.1 5.7 48.0 32.9 28.1 8.1 12.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.4 3.2 5.1 44.2 30.3 26.9 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.9 5.4 5.8 48.0 32.6 28.4 5.4 8.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.3 3.3 4.5 42.0 28.8 25.3 3.9 6.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 3.5 3.9 4.7 43.8 30.8 25.7 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 3.9 4.1 4.9 40.6 29.0 24.4 4.8 8.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.1 5.7 6.4 51.3 33.7 29.1 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 2.7 3.9 5.0 42.7 34.2 25.2 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.2 4.5 40.2 28.7 24.3 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 4.0 5.4 5.1 52.2 37.6 28.6 4.6 7.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 4.1 5.2 7.1 53.1 35.8 30.4 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 2.8 3.8 5.2 50.2 34.7 27.8 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 3.9 5.6 8.6 54.5 36.7 30.4 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.2 3.3 4.7 42.4 29.3 25.4 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.8 5.3 5.6 55.9 38.5 29.7 4.4 7.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 2.8 3.5 5.4 49.8 34.6 28.5 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 4.1 4.9 6.2 50.5 33.9 29.1 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 2.3 2.7 5.9 46.7 32.5 27.4 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 3.1 3.8 5.1 43.5 32.4 25.8 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 2.5 3.4 5.9 49.9 34.6 28.1 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.7 3.3 4.7 41.1 31.8 24.9 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 6.0 8.1 7.8 54.7 36.8 30.6 7.1 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 3.0 4.4 5.3 51.5 36.1 28.2 3.9 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------