***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 4.9 10.4 88.6 56.1 45.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.1 10.7 91.1 57.4 47.0 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.4 10.7 86.9 55.6 45.8 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.9 8.7 12.2 81.4 54.2 43.9 4.7 7.8 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.3 11.9 81.9 54.0 44.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.0 5.6 13.0 74.1 49.7 44.4 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.9 6.3 10.7 94.4 58.9 47.3 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.0 13.7 86.1 55.0 47.4 8.0 13.2 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.9 5.8 11.7 81.9 53.8 44.8 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.1 6.8 13.3 84.3 54.2 46.1 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.6 11.9 83.4 54.9 46.3 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.3 5.9 12.2 85.7 55.5 47.4 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.8 6.5 12.7 79.4 52.1 45.7 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.3 11.6 13.6 84.8 54.2 46.7 5.0 10.0 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.7 11.8 80.8 55.9 44.4 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.5 5.4 12.0 78.8 52.7 45.2 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.7 10.6 90.5 57.4 46.5 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.7 14.9 85.3 53.9 46.2 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.8 10.8 88.5 56.2 46.5 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.3 17.4 84.1 53.3 46.4 3.7 6.6 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.3 10.9 84.8 55.0 44.9 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.5 10.6 86.0 54.6 45.1 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.2 11.2 86.3 55.7 46.5 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.3 9.9 13.2 85.1 54.5 46.3 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.4 12.3 87.1 55.8 45.6 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.5 12.7 82.8 53.9 46.8 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.8 6.2 11.7 89.7 56.8 46.3 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.6 11.7 76.9 53.2 43.4 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.3 11.4 16.0 85.1 53.7 46.2 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.2 10.6 90.5 57.0 46.6 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------